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AXPZ20 KNHC 120348

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Peak winds may reach strong gale overnight. Peak seas

are likely near 13 ft, but will probably build to as high as 17

ft early Fri morning. On going high pressure north of the area 

will continue to funnel these gales through Sat morning, dropping

to near gale or strong breeze Sat night into Sun afternoon, and 

finally dissipating on Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 

ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests 

transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend 

should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Panama near 08N82W to 04N100W. The ITCZ 

continues from 04N100W to 06N115W to 03N130W to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N between

91W and 96W, and from 05N to 07N between 113W and 118W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



Outside of the Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds persist

across the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft

off Baja California with a component of NW swell, 3 to 5 ft

elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Areas of

smoke from agricultural fires were noted earlier over the 

coastal areas off Chiapas and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but

this has likely mixed out with the gale force winds.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are 

moderate or weaker through tomorrow morning. From tomorrow 

afternoon into Sat night, developing low pressure over the lower 

Colorado River valley will force fresh to strong S winds over the

N Gulf of California. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be 

moving across the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and

Sun. In the wake of the cold front, building high pressure 

should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California

peninsula Sun night into Tue. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to

strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of

Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. Light and variable winds 

prevail across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial 

Pacific waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Hazy conditions observed 

along and just offshore northern Central America are due to 

mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up 

over Central America will support NE to E winds up to strong 

tonight into Fri, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night 

over the Gulf of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some 

on Sun into Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to 

continue through early next week. The same pressure gradient will

cause fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama 

tomorrow night into Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate 

or weaker for the next several days. Meanwhile, large seas 

generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat

night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of

120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds

mainly north of 10N and west of 125W. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft

in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate

winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next

couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further on

Fri and Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters

north of 25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating.

Seas should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the

discussion area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A 

large NW to N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and 

Mon reaching as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S 

to SW swell will cross the equator heading northward. These 

interacting swell will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between

08N-22N west of 115W. Finally on tomorrow and Sat, a long tail 

of fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and

the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 102W and 

as far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Christensen