####018001760#### ABIO10 PGTW 191800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/191800Z- 201800ZMAR2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS FLARING CONVECTION. A 191426Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES PREDOMINANTLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH IS FURTHER CONFIRMED IN THE BYU HIGH- RESOLUTION ENHANCED VERSION ASCAT PRODUCT. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER SMOS PASS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS, DESPITE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.// NNNN ####018001838#### ABIO10 PGTW 191800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/191800Z- 201800ZMAR2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS FLARING CONVECTION. A 191426Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES PREDOMINANTLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH IS FURTHER CONFIRMED IN THE BYU HIGH- RESOLUTION ENHANCED VERSION ASCAT PRODUCT. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER SMOS PASS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS, DESPITE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN ####018005974#### AXNT20 KNHC 192329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING SW NORTH ATLANTIC... A cold front extends from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to Cuba. Behind this front, gale force NW to N winds and rough seas prevail N of 29N westward to 67W. A broad area of strong NW to N winds and rough seas behind the cold front N of 27N westward to 60W. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and rough seas prevail N of 27N E to 55W. As this front weakens this evening, gales will end. Strong winds will continue on both sides of the cold front overnight, before diminishing Wed. The rough seas will prevail into Wed night, before subsiding. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts and the Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N18W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the Equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N E of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved SE of the basin early this evening. Precipitation associated with the front has also exited, although scattered moderate convection has developed within 120 nm of the Mexico coastline N of Veracruz, where deep moisture is overrunning the cool low-level airmass in the wake of the cold front. Fresh to strong N winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche, otherwise moderate to fresh mainly NE winds dominate waters S of 25N, with gentle NE winds to the N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the southern Gulf of Mexico and 3 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will continue to gradually diminish tonight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast late on Thu, then track northeast toward the state of Georgia by Fri night pushing a cold front across the basin. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and seas across the Gulf waters, as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades dominate the SE basin, with moderate to fresh mainly E winds over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Across the western Caribbean, mainly gentle NE winds prevail. However, a cold front has passed through the Yucatan Channel, and winds are fresh and N to NE behind it. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft in the eastern basin, and 2 to 5 ft in the west, except for behind the cold front, where seas quickly build to 5 to 7 ft. No significant convection exists in the Caribbean this evening. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front continues to move across the western Atlantic, the Bahamas and Cuba. This front has reached western Cuba and the NW Caribbean and will extend over central Cuba on Wed, and across eastern Cuba on Thu while dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night while decreasing in coverage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning in the SW North Atlantic. Outside of the gale area, mainly moderate N winds prevail behind the front. A 90 to 150 nm wide band of moderate to locally strong convection is noted along and behind the cold front. This activity is impacting much of the central Bahamas. In the east Atlantic, areas E of 30W are dominated by fresh to strong NE flow, with moderate to fresh trades for most waters E of 50W. For the remainder of the basin, W of 50W and ahead of the direct influence of the cold front, gentle to moderate E to S winds prevail. Behind the cold front, E of 75W, seas are 8 to 11 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas to the W. For waters E of 45W, 7 to 10 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the basin, 4 to 7 ft seas prevail over open waters. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N57W to central Cuba by Wed morning. A weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching eastern Cuba. Then, the front will extend from near 31N50W to northern Hispaniola by Fri morning. Gale force winds ahead of the front are forecast to end late this afternoon. A band of showers and thunderstorms is currently ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters. $$ Konarik