####018005737####
AXPZ20 KNHC 121604

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1550 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 13N. Combined seas of about

15 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but seas in

the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 10N and 101W. Ongoing high 

pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these gales 

through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late 

Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop 

below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine 

interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 

weekend should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take 

the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over 

the affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 05N77W to 05N81W. The ITCZ 

continues from 05N82W to 07N118W to 03N132W to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N between

84W and 102W, and from 05N to 12N between 109W and 121W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



Outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds 

persist across the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate

SE winds along the northern and central Gulf of California. Combined

seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California with a component of NW 

swell, 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, developing 

low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will force 

fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California late

today. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be moving across 

the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. In the 

wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh

to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun 

night into Tue. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to

strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of

Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly 

winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore 

waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore

zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also

influences moderate gap winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light and 

variable winds prevail across the rest of the Central American 

and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, 

seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions observed along 

and just offshore northern Central America are due to mostly 

smoke produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up 

over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds 

today, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night over the Gulf 

of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into 

Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through 

early next week. The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to 

strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama tomorrow night into 

Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the 

next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 

128W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 

mainly north of 07N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 9 

ft in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to 

moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next

couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into 

Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 

25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas 

should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion 

area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to 

N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching 

as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell 

will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell

will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 

115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds 

from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will

reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will 

reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Ramos