####018005965####
AXPZ20 KNHC 122208

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2140 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas of 

about 14 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but 

seas in the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 09N and 102W. Ongoing 

high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these 

gales through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze

late Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should 

drop below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. 

Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing gap wind 

event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine 

conditions over the affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 05N81W. The ITCZ 

continues from 05N82W to 08N118W to 04N131W to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 12N between

82W and 105W, and from 06N to 13N between 109W and 120W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



Outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds 

persist across the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate

to fresh SE winds along the southern and central Gulf of 

California, and strong SE winds in the northern portion of the 

Gulf N of 30N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California 

with a component of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 

to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low 

pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to

support fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of 

California. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold front 

that will be moving across the waters west of Baja California 

Norte on Sat and Sun. This wil allow the continuation of fresh to

strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through early Sun

morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high pressure 

should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California

peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate

NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores through Wed

night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to

strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of

Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly 

winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore 

waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore

zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also

influences fresh to strong NNE gap winds in the Gulf of Panama N

of 05N. Light and variable winds prevail across the rest of the 

Central American and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the 

Papagayo region, seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up 

over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds 

tonight, and near gale force winds Sat night over the Gulf of 

Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into Tue, 

but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through early 

next week. The same pressure gradient will continue to support  

fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through 

Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the 

next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 14N and west of 

120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 

mainly north of 06N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 8 

ft in this region, with a component of mixed NE and NW swell. 

Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next

couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into 

Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 

25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas 

should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion 

area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to 

N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching 

as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell 

will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell

will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 

115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds 

from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will

reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will 

reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Ramos