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AXNT20 KNHC 031012

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Fri May 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0900 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 06N21W.

The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 01N47W. Convection previously

associated with these features has dissipated early this morning.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Divergence aloft and deep tropical moisture is supporting

scattered moderate convection offshore Texas and Louisiana, with

dry conditions over the rest of the basin. High pressure centered

over the northern Gulf maintains moderate to fresh E-SE winds and

seas of 3 to 6 ft south of 25N and W of 88W. Mainly gentle winds 

and slight seas are found in the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

centered over the NE Gulf and lower pressures in the western Gulf

will continue to support moderate to fresh winds over much of the

Gulf of Mexico well into next week. Fresh to locally strong winds

will pulse at night for the next few days near the northern and 

western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



An Atlantic surface trough extends SW to Haiti and is inducing

numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over and in the

vicinity of Hispaniola. Refer to local weather advisories for 

information regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding. 

Another trough extends from northern Colombia to south of Jamaica.

This trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the

south-central Caribbean. These features have disrupted the 

typical tradewind regime over the basin, with light to gentle 

winds over the central and SW Caribbean, moderate winds in the NW 

and NE basin, and fresh E to SE winds in the SE Caribbean. Seas in

the central and western basin are 2 to 4 ft, with 4 to 6 ft waves

in the eastern Caribbean.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected 

in the northwestern Caribbean into tonight, and in the Windward 

Passage nightly through the weekend. Mainly moderate winds are 

expected over the remainder of the area through early next week. 

The interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of 20N with 

the base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that extends 

into the western Caribbean has resulted in the development of 

scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of Cuba 

to the Windward Passage. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A deep-layer trough extends from near Bermuda to Hispaniola, with

scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring in association with

it from 20N to 30N between 52W and 72W. For waters N of 20N and W

of 50W, winds and seas are moderate or less, except locally higher

near the most robust convection. Farther east, another surface

trough extends from 30N30W to 21N50W. No convection is associated

with this trough, and winds N of 20N and E of 50W are mainly light

to gentle, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of 20N, trade winds dominate,

with moderate to locally fresh E winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between high pressure 

over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned trough will 

support pulsing fresh east to southeast winds east of the trough,

and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the trough.

The trough is expected to help promote the formation of weak low 

pressure along the surface trough later today. The low will track 

east- northeastward through Sat, then dissipate along the trough 

while exiting the area on Sun. High pressure will then take 

precedence over the entire area early next week. Moderate to 

locally fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the waters 

east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night. 



$$

Konarik