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AXPZ20 KNHC 130902

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0845 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. A scatterometer

satellite pass from 03 UTC showed maximum winds of 35 kt, which

had diminished slightly from 40 kt earlier in the evening. Combined

seas are reaching as high as 14 ft, with a plume of seas in 

excess of 8 ft reaching as far as 600 nm offshore in NE swell. 

Ongoing high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel 

these gales through this morning, dropping to near gale or 

strong breeze late today, and finally dissipating Sun night. 

Peak seas should drop below 12 ft this afternoon and below 8 ft 

Sun afternoon. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing 

gap wind event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 

marine conditions over the affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N90W to 07N120W to 03N135W to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 

90W and 105W, and from 09N to 10N between 115W and 118W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



A scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed fresh to 

strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California, 

ahead of a cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the 

west. Elsewhere, outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle

variable winds persist across the Mexican offshore waters. 

Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California with a component 

of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the 

Gulf of California.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low 

pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to support

fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California

through tonight. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold 

front that will be moving across the waters west of Baja 

California Norte through Sun. This wil allow the continuation of 

fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through 

early Sun morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high 

pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja 

California peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle 

to moderate NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores 

through Wed night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to

strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of

Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. A scatterometer satellite pass

around 03 UTC from confirmed this. Seas are estimated to be 8 to

11 ft in this area. The scatterometer data along with a ship 

observation showed fresh N gap winds over the Gulf of Panama as 

well, with fresh to strong winds off the Azuero Peninsula. Gentle

to moderate easterly winds from this gap wind event extend into 

the outer offshore waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Light and 

variable winds prevail across the rest of the Central American 

and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, 

seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 

will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 

and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-

gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 

Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into mid week. The

same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong 

N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Elsewhere, 

winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.

Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador

tomorrow through Sat night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



The ridge that was north of 20N is weakening and shifting east

ahead of a pair of cold fronts moving through the waters north 

of 20N and west of 130W. Trade wind flow farther south into the

tropics is diminishing as the ridge weakens, leaving an area of 8

ft seas in N swell from 05N to 15W west of 135W. Another area of

NW swell is moving south of 30N west of 130W following the

fronts. Meanwhile, as discussed above, NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is

emerging out of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching as far west

as 105W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas

dominate elsewhere.



For the forecast, the cold fronts will merge today then weaken

while moving eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja 

California through Sun, then dissipate. Seas should reach to 12 

ft near the northern border of the discussion area at 30N today,

before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will 

then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south 

of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the

equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause 

combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added

to this mix will include a component of shorter period seas due 

to wind waves to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N

to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of 

fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 

the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and 

as far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Christensen