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AXPZ20 KNHC 131604

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1550 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas are 

reaching as high as 14 ft, with a plume of seas in excess of 8 ft

reaching as far as 08N in NE swell. Ongoing high pressure north 

of the area will continue to funnel these gales through this 

morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late today, and 

finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 ft 

this afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests 

transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend 

should be aware of this ongoing gap wind event and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 05N82W to 05N90W. 

The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 06N120W to 03N130W to beyond 

03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 

evident within 120 nm off the coasts of Colombia and NW Ecuador, from

02N to 07N between 88W and 102W, and from 04N to 13N between 

102W and 111W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf 

of California, associated with a pre-frontal trough ahead of a 

cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the west. 

Elsewhere, outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle 

variable winds persist across the Mexican offshore waters. 

Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft off Baja California with a component

of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the 

Gulf of California.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low 

pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to support

fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California

through tonight. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold 

front that will be moving across the waters west of Baja 

California Norte through Sun. This wil allow the continuation of 

fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through 

early Sun morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high 

pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja 

California peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle 

to moderate NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores 

through Wed night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to

near gale-force wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and 

coast of Nicaragua downwind to about 95W. Seas are estimated to 

be 8 to 11 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds 

from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore waters El

Salvador and Guatemala. Fresh to strong N gap winds preavil over

the Gulf of Panama as well, including the Azuero Peninsula and 

extending as far south as 03N. Light and variable winds prevail 

across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 

waters. Outside of the Papagayo and Panama regions, seas are 4 

to 6 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 

will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 

and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-

gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 

Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into mid week. The

same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong 

N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Elsewhere, 

winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.

Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will

continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala 

and El Salvador through tonight. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge north of 17N is weakening and shifting east ahead of a 

cold front moving through the waters north of 20N and west of 

125W. Trade wind flow farther south into the tropics is 

diminishing as the ridge weakens, leaving an area of 8 ft seas in

NE swell from 06N to 10W west of 137W. Another area of NW swell 

is moving south of 30N west of 120W following the front. 

Meanwhile, as discussed above, NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is emerging

out of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching as far west as 

105W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas 

dominate elsewhere.



For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving 

eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 

through Sun, then dissipate. Seas should reach to 12 ft near the 

northern border of the discussion area at 30N today, before 

slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will then 

propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south of 

10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the 

equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause 

combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added 

to this mix will include a component of shorter period seas due 

to wind waves to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N

to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of 

fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 

the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and as

far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Ramos