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AXPZ20 KNHC 041605

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat May 04 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1545 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern

Colombia, southwestward to the coast at 07N78W, and continues 

to 14N94W to 10N102W and to 08N110W, where latest scatterometer 

data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to

08N122W to 06N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate

to strong convection is seen within 30 nm south of the ITCZ

between 126W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm 

of the ITCZ between 115W-117W, and also within 60 nm south of the 

ITCZ between 133W-135W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively

lower pressure in Baja California continues to support gentle to

moderate northwest to north winds off the peninsula along with 

combined seas of 5 to 7 ft due to NW swell. In the Gulf of 

California, winds are generally light and variable, except light 

to gentle northwest winds over the southern part of the Gulf. 

Seas over the Gulf are in the range of 2 to 3 ft, except for 

slighter higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the northern part. Gentle to

moderate northwest winds continue over the southwestern Mexican 

offshore waters along with moderate seas in NW swell. Light to 

gentle west winds are S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14N, while 

light variable winds are S of 14N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in S swell 

are to the S of the Gulf. Similar conditions are over the 

offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca.



For the forecast, the gentle to moderate south to southwest 

winds will continue S of the monsoon trough over the Central 

America offshore waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands through the next few days. Light to gentle variable winds

will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due to S 

swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands 

will change little into next week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Overnight scatterometer data indicates light to gentle southwest

to west winds over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El 

Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Seas over those waters are in 

the range of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Satellite imagery shows

scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of

Costa Rica, just offshore Colombia and scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms along and within 30 to 60 nm offshore 

Nicaragua. The scatterometer data also indicates light to gentle

south to west winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Light to

gentle southwest winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 

moderate southerly winds are present S of the monsoon trough 

along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, including the waters S of the 

Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, the gentle to moderate south to southwest 

winds S of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore 

waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will

continue through the next few days. Light to gentle variable 

winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due

to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos 

Islands will change little into next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the

area basically controlling the wind flow regime over the waters 

N of about. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 

and relatively lower pressures to the E from southern California

to the Gulf of California is allowing for mostly moderate

northwest to north winds to exist N of 25N and east of 124W.

Overnight scatterometer data displayed and west of 130W. Seas 

with these winds are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest of the seas 

occurring with the strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and moderate seas remain.



For the forecast, winds and seas over the far western tropical

waters will diminish to moderate speeds Wed morning and prevail

the remainder forecast period. A weak cold front will drop 

S of 30N this evening, then gradually weaken as it moves 

southward across the waters N of 23N through early Mon. NW swell

following the front will impact the waters N of 24W and E of 

130W by late on Wed and through Thu before subsiding.



$$

Aguirre