####018005208####
AXNT20 KNHC 140004

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...



High pressure and associated ridging over both the Gulf of Mexico

and the central Atlantic will continue to influence the

development of gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight

and Sun night. Rough seas in the 8-9 ft range will build to 12 ft

while the gale is ongoing.



...Atlantic Gale Warning...



Short-lived gales developed late this afternoon over the far

central subtropical Atlantic waters associated with a 1014 mb low

pressure N of the area. The gales will diminish early Sun morning

as the low starts to track northeastward. However, fresh to strong

winds associated with it will continue through at least Mon.

Currently peak seas are 13 ft but are forecast to build to 17 ft

tonight into Sunday. Seas will subside below 12 ft Mon evening.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes Sierra Leone near 07N13W SW to 04N18W. 

The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to

01S34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between

04W and 13W, and from 04S to 04N between 26W and 49W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A high pressure center of 1027 mb is anchored over the NE Gulf, 

extending a ridge to the remaining basin and providing moderate to

fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and E to SE winds of the same

magnitude over the NW basin. Over the SW Gulf, fresh to strong NE

winds are off the Yucatan Peninsula and over the E Bay of 

Campeche. N of 26N, seas are slight and S of 26N seas are moderate

to 6 ft, except to 8 ft offshore W Yucatan.



For the forecast, strong winds will pulse off the northwest 

Yucatan peninsula during the evening the next several days. 

Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with slight to moderate seas 

can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. 

Winds will briefly increase over the western Gulf by the middle 

of next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a

gale warning off the coast of Colombia.



High pressure and associated ridging over both the Gulf of Mexico

and the central Atlantic continue to support moderate to fresh NE

to E winds basin-wide, except for strong to near gale-force winds

in the south-central Caribbean, including the offshore waters of

Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE winds are also ongoing

in the Lee of E Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Seas are

moderate basin-wide in the 5 to 7 ft range, except in the SW

Caribbean where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range.  



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 

coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight and Sun night. 

Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale-force 

winds. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the 

Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of 

Cuba. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas

can be expected across much of the basin through the weekend and 

into early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds may 

develop in the Gulf of Honduras mid-week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a

gale warning in the central Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N64W SW to eastern Cuba while the

central and most of the E subtropical Atlantic waters are under

the influence of a broad ridge. Moderate NW winds are behind the

front NE of the Bahamas while moderate to fresh NE winds are

affecting the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches

to the Caribbean. Rough seas to 9 ft are affecting the waters N of

30N behind the front while fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 8

ft are ahead of the front. Fresht to strong NE winds area ongoing

in the central subtropical Atlantic along with long period N to NE

swell generating combined seas to 13 ft. See the Special Features

section for further information. 



For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall from 31N61W 

to eastern Cuba early Sun where it will gradually dissipate. 

Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will diminish 

tonight. Rough seas accompanying the front will subside by Sun 

morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger through

the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of 

the front through early next week with more tranquil marine 

conditions expected.



$$

Ramos