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AXNT20 KNHC 141014

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the

Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly 

trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will 

pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are 

8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest seas off NW 

Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal

near 15N17W and continues southward to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends 

from 01N20W to 00N30W and to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N and west of 

21W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico 

dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather 

conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south 

of 28N, including the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 

to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted

north of 23N. 



For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong 

winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the 

evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds 

with slight to moderate seas can be expected through early next 

week. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on 

Mon night into Tue. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale

warning off NW Colombia.



Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of

Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the 

gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the

Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in 

the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 

ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the

lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds 

and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 

coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 12 

ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of

the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few 

days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas

can be expected across much of the basin through early next week.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf of 

Honduras mid- week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N69W, where it becomes a 

stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. Light showers are noted

near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong southerly 

winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 29N and from the 

front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the 

western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary, supporting moderate 

or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas, especially east of 

77W.



Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N28W to the Leeward 

Islands. Low pressure with a central pressure of 1010 mb is

lcoated near 32N33W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted around

this low and north of the shear line and east of 60W. Seas 

associated with this system range 12 to 17 ft N of 26N. South of

26N, seas are 8 to 11 ft stretching as far south as 12N and as far

west as Puerto Rico. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker 

winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N62W to 

25N69W where it stalls from that point to eastern Cuba. The front 

is expected to continue to stall today and gradually dissipate 

through Mon. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will 

diminish early this morning. Rough seas accompanying the front 

will subside today. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will 

linger through Mon. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the 

wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil 

marine conditions expected. 



$$

AReinhart