####018005177####
AXPZ20 KNHC 141607

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1550 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 04N80W to 06N86W. 

The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 06N106W then resumes near

05N125W and continues beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is active within 200 nm off the coast of Colombia, and 

from 03N to 12N between 98W and 118W. Scattered moderate

isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 120W and

132W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Fresh to strong N gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec with rough seas to 9 ft. These gap winds are 

gradually diminishing as high pressure that was over the western 

Gulf of Mexico for the past couple of days continues to shift 

eastward. A weak cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of

California and Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle

to moderate N to NW winds are ahead of the front and along the

the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with 5-7 ft seas in NW swell.

Light to gentle winds and seas in the 4-5 ft range are ongoing

elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure over the Gulf of 

Mexico shifts east. Farther north, fresh to strong NW winds and 

NW swell will follow the cold front moving across Baja 

California Norte. The front will dissipate by Mon, but NW swell 

of 8 to 9 ft will reach as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by early 

Mon, the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon night, before subsiding 

below 8 ft through Tue night. Looking ahead, moderate winds and 

seas will persist across the Mexican offshore waters Wed and Thu.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of 

Papagayo region and while winds have diminshed to fresh speeds in

the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 9 ft off of the Papagayo area

and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers 

and thunderstorms are active along the Pacific coast of Colombia.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 

will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 

and the coast of Nicaragua through tonight, pulsing to near- 

gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 

Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into Tue evening. 

The same pressure gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh

N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Elsewhere, 

winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.

Meanwhile, rough seas generated in the Gulf of Papagayo will 

continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador through late today. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 25N129W

followed by NW swell generating seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to

moderate N to NE winds are behind the front reaching to 20N. The

greadient between the subtropical ridge and a couple of surface

trough with active convection breaking the ITCZ is supporting a

belt of moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 06N to 20N W of

110W with 5-8 ft seas. A plume of fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas

originating from the gap winds events off Mexico and Central 

America are from 06N to 13N E of 115W. Farther south, southerly 

swell to 8 ft is cross the equator between 120W and 130W.



For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving 

eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 

today, then dissipate. High pressure will build in the wake of 

the front, supporting fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 

130W. The swell following the front will subside a little as it

propagates equatorward through Mon reaching as far south of 10N.

The large S to SW cross-equatorial swell will interact with the

northerly swell and create combined seas of up to 10 ft between 

08N to 22N west of 115W. Added to this mix will include a 

component of shorter period wind waves from the fresh trade wind

flow to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N to 15N 

between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of fresh to 

strong NE to E winds and rough seas from the Gulf of Tehuantepec

and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W 

and as far south as 08N. Looking ahead, winds and seas will

diminish Wed and Thu.



$$

Ramos