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AXNT20 KNHC 050000

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Sun May 05 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2345 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, and continues southwestward to

07N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 

transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to 03N45W. Scattered 

moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 

between 30W-38W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Western Atlantic high pressure is ridging westward across 

Florida and to across the NE Gulf. Relatively lower pressure 

is over the central and western Gulf sections. A weak trough is 

along 85W from 26N to just south of Apalachicola, Florida while 

another trough is analyzed over the western Gulf from 25N93W to 

22N97W. No significant weather is occurring with these features.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident

in the SW and west-central Gulf. 



The pressure gradient in place is allowing for generally 

moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf, except

for fresh southeast winds over the NW Gulf, fresh northeast to 

east winds over the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf, and for light 

to gentle east to southeast winds over the NE Gulf. Seas of

4 to 7 ft are over the basin, except for slightly lower seas 

of 3 to 5 ft over the southeastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the

NE Gulf.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high and 

lower pressure in the western Gulf will support moderate to fresh

winds over most of the basin through late next week. Fresh to 

locally strong winds will pulse at night through late next week 

off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. The haze observed 

in the SW and west-central Gulf sections is likely to remain 

into the upcoming week as agricultural fires continue in 

southeastern Mexico and northern Central America.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The axis of an upper-level trough extends from well northeast of 

the Caribbean in the central Atlantic southwestward near Puerto 

Rico. At the surface, a trough also extends from the central 

southwestward to Puerto Rico. These troughs are acting on rather 

above normal tropical moisture that is present over the 

northeastern Caribbean along with plenty of instability. As a 

result, the potential for further development of scattered 

showers and thunderstorms remains quite high for most of the 

eastern Caribbean going into the upcoming week. Some of this 

activity may be accompanied by gusty winds and frequent 

lightning. Additional deep atmospheric moisture in the form of 

cloudiness is observed on satellite imagery being pulled north 

and northeastward over the eastern Caribbean due to strong 

southwest winds aloft that are out ahead of the aforementioned 

upper-level trough. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a 

threat of flooding to Puerto Rico through Sun. See local weather 

advisories for more information. Mariners should also be aware 

of the potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in 

the area of showers and thunderstorms. 



The gradient in place supports moderate to locally fresh trade

winds over the southeastern Caribbean and mostly moderate trade 

winds elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for 

slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft from 15N to 18N between 

76W and 85W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are 

near the approaches to the Windward Passage and lower seas of 

2 to 3 ft are in the SW Caribbean.



Scattered moderate convection is seen over most of the interior

sections of Hispaniola, Cuba and some over Jamaica. Similar

activity is over the waters between southwestern Haiti and 

Jamaica.



Scattered to broken low-level clouds, some with possible isolated 

showers, are noted moving westward with the trade wind flow over 

just about the entire basin.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east winds over the 

northwestern Caribbean will continue through mid-week. Similar 

winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage through Mon 

night.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Rather weak surface high pressure is north of 22N and west of 

65W. Broad upper-level ridging is over this same area of the 

Atlantic. These features are maintaining fairly tranquil weather 

conditions west of 65W. A cold front extends from low pressure 

of 1014 mb that is at 32N59W southwestward to 29N67W and 

northwestward to well north of the area. A narrow line of low-

level clouds, with possible isolated showers, denotes the 

leading edge of the frontal boundary on last visible satellite 

images. To the east, an upper-level trough axis stretches from 

an upper-level cyclonic circulation that is well north of the 

area southwestward to 31N60W, to 25N63W and to Puerto Rico. At 

the surface, a trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 24N55W and also 

to Puerto Rico. An extensive swath of multilayer clouds with 

embedded rain patches, scattered showers and possible isolated 

thunderstorms is east of the upper-level trough to a line from 

31N30W to 22N47W to Martinique. An area of scattered showers and 

thunderstorms lifting north is south of 14N between 55W-60W.

 

Moderate northeast to east winds and slight to moderate seas are 

present south of 25N and west of the surface trough.



The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 

1021 mb high pressure system near the Island of Madeira. 

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are 

present south of a line from the westernmost of the Canary 

Islands to the Windward Islands. The strongest winds are 

occurring off Western Sahara. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere across the basin.



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will 

shift eastward through early next week as a cold front drops 

southward over the eastern and central waters. The front will 

shift east of the area Sun night, bringing rough seas with it,

primarily north of 20N and east of about 59W through mid-week.



$$

Aguirre