####018005245####
AXPZ20 KNHC 142205

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2150 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N90W to 06N104W then resumes near 06N125W and 

continues beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active

within 180 nm off the coast of Colombia, from 04N to 12N between

99W and 118W, and from 01N to 08N between 120W and 132W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico continues to weaken

while it shifts eastward, and its associated ridge supports SE

winds over the Bay of Campeche. This setup has diminished the

winds in the Tehuantepec region to moderate to fresh speeds and

rough seas to 8 ft. A former weakening cold front dissipated this

afternoon, and the subtropical ridge now extends over the region.

Recent scatterometer data show moderate NW winds along the Baja

California offshore waters while an altimeter pass shows 8 to 10

ft seas over the waters N of Punta Eugenia in NW swell associated

with the former front. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are

along the central and southern Gulf of California, also extending

Cabo Corrientes adjacent waters. Seas in these regions are in the

2-4 ft range. Light to gentle winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range

are ongoing elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, low pressure will develop over Mexico this

evening, which will result in a tighten pressure gradient and the

develpment of fresh to locally strong NW winds along the Baja

Peninsula offshore waters from this evening through Tue. NW 

swell of 8 to 9 ft will reach as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by 

early Mon, the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon night, before 

subsiding below 8 ft through Tue night. Looking ahead, moderate 

winds and seas will persist across the Baja Peninsula offshore 

waters Wed and Fri morning.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of 

Papagayo region while winds have diminshed to moderate speeds in

the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 8 ft off of the Papagayo area 

and 5 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers 

and thunderstorms are active along the Pacific coast of Colombia.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 

will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 

and the coast of Nicaragua through tonight. The forcing will 

diminish some Mon into Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will 

continue into Tue evening. The same pressure gradient will 

continue to support moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf

of Panama through Tue. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate 

or weaker for the next several days. Meanwhile, rough seas 

generated in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate 

across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 

through late today. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A former weakening cold front has dissipated, however residual

long period NW swell continue to spread SE across the 

subtropical waters where recent altimeter data show 8 to 10 ft

seas. A broad subtropical ridge covers the waters N of 15N and is

supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over that

region. South of 15N to the ITCZ region and W of 110W, moderate 

to fresh NE to E winds and 5-9 ft seas prevail. Otherwise, a 

plume of fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas originating from the gap 

winds events off Mexico and Central America are from 05N to 10N 

E of 110W. Farther south, southerly swell to 10 ft continues to

spread northward to 12N and W of 110W.



For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build in the 

wake of the former front, supporting fresh trade winds from 05N 

to 15N west of 130W. The swell following the front will subside a

little as it propagates equatorward through Mon reaching as far 

south of 10N. The large S to SW cross-equatorial swell will 

interact with the northerly swell and create combined seas of up 

to 10 ft between 08N to 22N west of 115W. Added to this mix will 

include a component of shorter period wind waves from the fresh 

trade wind flow to create an area of confused seas from roughly 

10N to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of 

fresh NE to E winds and rough seas from the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W 

and as far south as 05N. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 

diminish Wed and Thu.



$$

Ramos