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AXNT20 KNHC 150437

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0435 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: A subtropical ridge centered north of the

Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds 

across the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale-force off NW 

Colombia tonight. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Winds are 

forecast to diminish below gale-force by Mon morning, however, 

fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the south-central 

Caribbean through at least Thu. Please, read the latest High Seas 

Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for 

more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ

extends from 05N16W to 00N30W and to 01N45W. Scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and east of

16W. Similar convection is noted south of 05N and between 25W and

47W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure system located in the NE Gulf of Mexico

dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather

conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are present

south of 26N and east of 90E and in the remainder of the Gulf west

of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and

slight seas are found in the NE Gulf, north of 26N and east of

90E.



For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong 

winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the 

next several evenings. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with 

slight to moderate seas can be expected through early next week. 

Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on Mon 

night into Tue.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale

warning off the coast of Colombia.



A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean Sea, along 66W.

Isolated showers are noted near the boundary, affecting the

islands in the area and surrounding waters. Similar convection is

also noted in the north-central Caribbean, affecting SW Haiti and

Jamaica. Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the 

Caribbean.



Outside of the gale warning region, the pressure gradient between

the broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and

lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near

gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.

Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and

seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean, 

including the Windward Passage, eastern Caribbean and lee of Cuba.

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the 

remaining waters. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 

coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 11 

ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward 

Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for 

the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and 

moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the

middle of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N58W and continues

southwestward to 27N63W, becoming a stationary front to eastern

Cuba. Light showers are evident on satellite imagery near the

frontal boundary. Farther east, a broad 1008 mb low pressure 

system is located near 32N32W. A recent scatterometer satellite 

pass show fresh to strong cyclonic winds north of 25N and between 

27W and 45W. Wave heights in these waters are 10-16 ft, with the 

highest seas occurring near 31N36W. A shear line extends from 

26N24W to 17N40W and to 16N61W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and

seas of 8-11 ft are evident north of the shear line to 23N and 

west of 45W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail

elsewhere.



For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary 

will gradually dissipate through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the 

waters impacting Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will

linger through early this week. High pressure will build in the 

wake of the front early in the week with more tranquil marine 

conditions expected.



$$

Delgado