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AXPQ20 PGUM 151910

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

510 AM ChST Tue Apr 16 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

A Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) remains nearly stationary from

EQ140E and 4N130E. Good convergence near this feature is allowing

for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop.



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

All trade wind troughs have weakened sufficiently between the

Equator and 10N across both west and east Micronesia that they're

distinguishable. Another trough in the trades is approaching the

Marianas from the east, with minimal shower development.



TRADE-WIND SURGE...

A fairly decent trade wind surge is located between 10N and 25N

from 165E, where winds of 15 to 25 knots are observed in the

latest scatterometer data.



...DISCUSSION...

The most concentrated area of convection is located across western

Micronesia from near the Equator to 9N, due to good surface

convergence. Here, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are

developing, with localized cloud tops pushing -80 deg.C,

indicative of locally heavy bursts of rainfall. Otherwise, showers

are mainly isolated area wide this morning.



Over the next few days, the Micronesian convection will continue

to shift west, with perhaps additional development eastward

getting a boost from nocturnal "flare-ups" Elsewhere, convection

may gradually increase between 10N and 25N as the models suggest

improving convergence as the trade wind surge continues westward.



$$



Doll