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AXPZ20 KNHC 160351

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 05N105W. The ITCZ 

continues from 05N105W to 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate

convection is active from 07N to 12N between 105W and 120W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Fresh NW winds persist off the coast of Baja California to Cabo 

San Lazaro. This wind pattern continues between the subtropical 

ridge over the eastern Pacific along about 130W, and lower 

pressure over central Mexico. NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 

ft continues to move through the Baja near and offshore waters, 

with early afternoon altimeter data showing peak seas of 9 to 11 

ft across the offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San 

Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas of 6 ft or 

less are elsewhere W of Puerto Angel. Across the Gulf of 

California mostly moderate NW winds prevail, with seas 3 ft and 

less, except around 4 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. 

Northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 

diminished to less than 15 kt, and extend to about 90 nm 

offshore.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will prevail across

the Baja California near and offshore waters through overnight, 

then diminish to moderate to fresh through Tue evening. NW swell 

of 7 to 10 ft will continue to move across the offshore waters of

Baja California, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, 

then gradually subside below 8 ft through late Wed. Gentle to 

moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 

Wed. Wind and seas will diminish further through Fri as high 

pressure weakens west of the area.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region and

into the southern Nicaragua waters, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh

easterly winds then continue farther offshore of Papagayo, to

beyond 93W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue  

in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03N. Light 

to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted 

elsewhere, except 7 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through

southeast of the Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, easterly gap winds will pulse to strong across the

Gulf of Papagayo region and most of the coastal waters of

Nicaragua tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh through

Wed. A narrow plume of rough seas will extend westward tonight

and Tue, reaching the offshore waters of Guatemala and El

Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf

of Panama will continue through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate

winds and seas will persist through late Wed. Winds will

diminish further through Fri as a weak pressure gradient

develops across the local region and the western Caribbean. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,

covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 

gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to

fresh trade winds north of 07N and west of 110W. A surface low 

has develop along the ITCZ near 7.5N121W, where active convection

continues to the NW through NE, supported by a mid to upper 

trough to its northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

active near this trough from 04.5N to 11N between 113W and 126W. 

A small area of strong NE winds is located due north of the low 

between 08N and 12N, where afternoon altimeter data showed seas 

of 10 to 12 ft. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft continues to move through 

the regional waters, and is reaching as far south as 13N, mainly 

west of 118W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is reaching as 

far north as 17N, and is mixing with the trade wind flow, and has

also begun to merge with the NW swell across the region between 

10N and 17N. Meanwhile, a plume of fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft

in E swell emanating out of gap wind events farther east is 

reaching as far west as 95W from 08N to 10N. 



The northerly and southerly swell groups will merge along with 

shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade 

winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to 

20N west of 110W by this evening. Farther east, the plume of E 

winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish,

but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 7 to 9 ft 

south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will 

subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas 

in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.



$$

Christensen