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AXNT20 KNHC 161035

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1030 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.

The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 04S28W and to 01S41W. Scattered

moderate convection is evident south of 05N and between 12W and

31W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A few showers are observed near the coast of the northwest Gulf 

of Mexico, while tranquil weather conditions are prevalent 

elsewhere. A subtropical ridge persists over the NE Gulf and the 

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico

and Texas result in fresh to locally strong E-SE winds west of 

87W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf will result in 

fresh to strong winds pulsing off the northwest Yucatan peninsula 

during the next several nights. Similar winds are also forecast in

the western Gulf today. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will 

prevail through most of the week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough over Hispaniola continues to produce a few

showers over the nearshore waters in the south side of the 

island. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north 

of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in NW Colombia support fresh

to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with 

seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and

seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, Windward 

Passage and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands will result in

fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds pulsing nightly in 

the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to 

occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage,

S of the Dominican Republic, and in the lee of Cuba for the next 

few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate 

seas can be expected across much of the basin through the middle 

of the week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N61W to eastern

Cuba. A couple of surface troughs are evident ahead of the frontal

boundary. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft result in

scattered moderate convection south of 29N and between 55W and the

frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 

seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the area described. The remainder

of the basin is under broad ridging, supporting mainly fresh 

easterly trade winds and 7-9 ft seas south of 20N and west of 35W.



A broad low pressure persists south of the Azores, sustaining

moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6-8 ft seas north of 28N and

between 23W and 37W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas are present.



For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast 

to weaken today into a broad surface trough. The disturbance will 

continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

affecting the eastern Bahamas, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into 

midweek, before lifting northeastward. The decaying northerly 

swell across the waters impacting Puerto Rico southward to the 

Leeward islands will linger through the middle of the week. 

Building high pressure over the waters N of 20N will result in 

more tranquil marine conditions later this week. 



$$

Delgado