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AXNT20 KNHC 162301

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of

Sierra Leone and Liberia and enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W

extending to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 01.5S35W

to coastal Brazil near 00.5S49W. Scattered moderate isolated

strong convection is noted south of 05N and between 04W and 26W ,

and between 37W and 50W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



An Atlantic subtropical ridge persists over the NE Gulf this

afternoon. The associated pressure gradient between this ridge 

and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas is resulting in fresh to 

locally strong E-SE to SE winds west of 85W. Seas in these waters

are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail in the rest of the Gulf, with seas to 5 ft in the Straits

of Florida. Widely scattered showers are observed across the Texas

and SW Louisiana coastal waters, embedded in the return flow, while

tranquil weather conditions are prevalent elsewhere.



For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain across the 

NE Gulf and combine with relatively lower pressure in the western

Gulf to produce fresh to strong winds pulsing off the northwest 

Yucatan peninsula during the next several nights. Similar winds 

are also forecast in the western Gulf tonight. Otherwise, 

moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A 

cold may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed by 

fresh northeast winds. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A deep layered upper trough extending from the western Atlantic

S-SW across the central Caribbean supports a surface trough over 

Hispaniola. These features continue to produce scattered moderate

thunderstorms across Hispaniola, while a cluster of showers and a

few thunderstorms is presently over the nearshore waters along 

the south side of the island. The pressure gradient between the 

subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and lower 

pressures in NW Colombia support moderate to locally fresh winds

across NW portions, and fresh NE winds in the south-central 

Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across NW portions, and of 4-6 ft

across the south central and southwest portions. Strong NE winds

prevail through the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft and

building. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas

of 3-6 ft are occurring.



For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will 

result in fresh to locally strong trade winds pulsing nightly in 

the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to 

occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage,

south of the Dominican Republic and in the lee of Cuba through 

early Thu, then in the Windward Passage at night through Sun. 

Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 

be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 

week, then become confined to mostly the central and eastern 

sections of the basin Sat through Sun night.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A frontal trough, supported by a deep layered upper trough,

extends from 30N63W to NW Hispaniola. Another surface troughs is 

east of there, from near 21N63W to the Virgin Islands. Abundant 

low level moisture and divergence aloft to the east of the upper 

trough are resulting in scattered moderate convection south of 29N

and between 53W and the frontal trough. Moderate to locally fresh

NE winds are west of this main trough and extend into the 

Bahamas. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. To the east of the trough, 

moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring

north of 15N to 50W. The remainder of the basin is under broad 

ridging, supporting mainly fresh easterly trade winds and 7-9 ft 

seas south of 20N and west of 35W.



A broad 1009 mb low pressure system persists south of the Azores,

sustaining moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6-8 ft seas north

of 28N and between 23W and 42W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas are present.



For the forecast W of 55W, the large trough extending from 30N63W

to NW Hispaniola will continue to produce scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms to the east of it tonight. The supporting

upper level trough will shift eastward through Thu, with active

weather remaining to the east of this feature. A weak low 

pressure is expected to form near 24N57W Wed night and track 

northeastward. Decaying NE swell across the waters est of 65W to 

the Leeward islands will linger through early Wed afternoon. High 

pressure will build over the waters north of about 20N later this 

week allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions. A cold 

front may move over the waters east of northeast Florida late Sun 

night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could precede this 

front. 



$$

Stripling