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AXPZ20 KNHC 170332

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N95W to 05N115W to beyond 08N135W to 08N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 

129W and 131W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Moderate to locally fresh NW winds continue along the coast and

offshore waters of Baja California. NW swell moving through the 

regional waters is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft south of Punta

Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds and seas

persist elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh NW winds off Baja California will 

diminish through Wed. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft off Baja California 

south of Punta Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands will 

gradually subside from N to S through Thu, falling below 8 ft 

late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist

elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas will diminish further Thu 

through Sun as high pressure weakens west of the area.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the 

Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters to 90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light

to gentle winds and moderate seas of 3 to 6 ft in SW swell are 

noted elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through 

southeast of the Galapagos Islands, as measured by recent 

satellite altimeter.



For the forecast, easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region will

diminish through Thu. Moderate fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf

of Panama will diminish Wed. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas 

will persist through late Wed. Winds will diminish further Thu 

through Sat as a weak pressure gradient develops across the local

region and the western Caribbean. Another pulse of moderate SW 

swell late Thu through Sat will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft 

range, except higher near the Galapagos Islands.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,

covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 

gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to

fresh trade winds north of 08N and west of 110W. Fresh winds,

rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 

near and to the north of a 1007 mb surface low along the ITCZ 

near 08N130W, supported by a mid to upper trough to its 

northwest. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft continues to move through the 

regional waters, and is the dominant swell as far south as 10N, 

mainly west of 120W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is mixing

with the northerly swell and with the trade wind flow between 

07N and 17N to the W of 120W.



For the forecast, wave heights will subside across the region

through Fri, although an area of 8 ft seas will persist from 08N

to 12N west of 130W due to fresh trade winds and lingering 

swell. 



$$

Christensen