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AXPZ20 KNHC 070958

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Tue May 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0920 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to low pres 

1010 mb near 10N109W to 07N113W. The ITCZ extends from 07N113W 

to 04N127W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection

is noted from 01N to 08N between 91W and 104W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered NE of Hawaii extends a broad ridge 

southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the 

Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high 

pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting 

moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the peninsula, with fresh 

winds mainly between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with

these winds are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N

of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light

and variable with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the S and SW 

Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except along

the coastal waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca where moderate W to NW

winds are noted. Seas in with these winds in the S and SW Mexican

offshore waters remain 5 to 6 ft in mixed S and SW swell. 



For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 

shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure 

gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will 

lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja 

Peninsula waters through Thu, with small areas of locally fresh 

winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening. As 

the high pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase 

across the near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW 

winds extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of 

Guadalupe Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into 

the area offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of

8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of Punta 

Eugenia through Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 

waters through Sat.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Heavy showers and thunderstorms are coming off the coast of

Colombia into the Gulf of Panama likely supporting strong to

gusty winds and moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder 

Central America offshore waters, winds remain light and variable

and seas moderate to 6 ft in S swell. Between the coast of 

Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly gentle to 

moderate from the S to SE with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.



For the forecast, S to SE winds south of 05N will become S to SW

and increase to moderate to locally fresh speeds from this morning

through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent 

elsewhere along with moderate seas in S swell. Heavy showers and

thunderstorms will expand from the Gulf of Panama to the offshore

waters of Costa Rica today and prevail at least through Thu. Otherwise,

southerly swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos

Islands through early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell 

Fri afternoon through Sat.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



1029 mb high pressure is centered NE of Hawaii near 36N145W and 

extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical 

waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NE winds 

are noted between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the 

west of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-8 ft in NW 

swell. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W, 

moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. 

South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted 

with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light 

to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western

part of the tropical waters will prevail through this afternoon 

then gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Fri as high 

pressure to the north shifts northeastward. Seas with these winds

will be 6 to 8 ft, and will subside tonight into Wed. NW swell 

across the Baja California Norte waters will build through mid 

week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater mainly N of 25W and E of

130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will subside below 8 

ft late Thu night.



$$

Ramos