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AXNT20 KNHC 171254 CCA

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024



Corrected Gulf of Mexico synopsis



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1025 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:

A broad surface trough and a pronounced upper-level trough

continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,

mainly north of the Greater Antilles. Very heavy downpours have

already fallen in Hispaniola during the past few days, leading to

rivers overflowing their banks and flash flooding. Additional 

rainfall is possible today, while drier conditions are likely Thu.

Local residents need to stay up to date with the latest 

information from their local weather and emergency management 

agencies.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ

extends from 05N19W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated

strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 23W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected



The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge off NE Florida

and lower pressures in Mexico result in fresh to locally strong

easterly winds south of 25N and between 89W and 96W. Seas in these

waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas

prevail. A few showers are evident in the nearshore waters of

Texas, while generally dry conditions are found in the remaining

waters of the Gulf.



For the forecast, a subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and the

Bahamas and lower pressures in Mexico will support fresh to strong

easterly winds pulsing off the NW Yucatan peninsula and south-

central Gulf during the next several nights. Otherwise, moderate 

winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A cold 

front may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed by 

fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section about heavy rainfall in

Hispaniola.



The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands continues to

force fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the lee of Cuba,

Windward Passage and in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in

these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly

breezes and moderate seas are evident in the remainder of the

central and NW Caribbean and also in the eastern Caribbean.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas

are prevalent.



For the forecast, a 1021 mb high pressure system centered

northwest of the Bahamas is forcing moderate to fresh easterly 

trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to strong 

speeds at night through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong 

winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba 

through early Thu, then in the Windward Passage at night through 

Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas 

can be expected across much of the basin through the forecast 

period. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough is analyzed along 63W, producing scattered

showers between 55W and 64W, mainly north of 22N. A modest

pressure gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly

winds and seas of 7-10 ft in the area described. The remainder of

the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a 

1021 mb high pressure system located near 31N73W. The subtropical

ridge is forcing moderate to locally strong easterly winds and

seas of 5-8 ft south of 28N and west of 63W.



The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad

subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high

pressure system near 33N50W and lower pressures in the deep

tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of

20N. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft, with the

highest seas near 12N48W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, a subtropical ridge between Bermuda 

and the Bahamas is forcing moderate to locally strong winds west 

of 70W. A surface trough analyzed along 63W is producing scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms between 57W and 63W. This 

storm activity will continue affecting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico 

through early Thu as a weak low pressure forms along it and tracks

northeastward. Rough seas north of the Leeward Islands will 

gradually subside over the next few days. Later this week, high 

pressure will build over the waters north of about 20N allowing 

for generally tranquil marine conditions. A cold front may move 

over the waters off NE Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers 

and thunderstorms could precede this front. 



$$

Delgado