####018008525#### AXNT20 KNHC 260517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0517 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Swell Event: Seas, generated by a deepening low pressure system located NW of Bermuda, are propagating into the Atlantic forecast waters building seas to 12 to 16 ft roughly N of 26N between 64W and 75W. This swell event will persist tonight and Tue, with seas building up to 19 ft late tonight into Tue morning. The low pressure will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast region Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N60W on Thu, then dissipating. The large NE swell W of 70W will persist through Wed morning before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. North-Central Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a low pressure system over Texas and the western Gulf supports southerly winds reaching gale force over the north- central Gulf and rough to very rough seas. These winds and rough seas will diminish early Tue through Tue night ahead of the advancing cold front moving off the Texas coast. South Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and two surface troughs one over eastern Mexico and the other one over Yucatan Peninsula, and an approaching cold front off the Texas coast are supporting southerly gale force winds over the central Bay of Campeche. Seas in the area of this winds will build to 11 ft overnight. As the cold front continues to progress SE during the the overnight hours the pressure gradient will relax. Therefore, winds will decrease to strong by Tue morning. Seas will subside below 8 ft my Tue mid morning. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southward to near 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 200 nm along the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central and southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front is moving off the coast of Texas. Recent scatterometer data revealed moderate to fresh NW to N winds behind the cold front. A ridge over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward across Florida and the eastern Gulf while a low pressure system dominates the western Gulf. This pattern supports fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the waters E of 93W, with winds reaching gale force across the north- central Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 8 to 14 ft N of 21N between 85W and 95W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except across the offshore waters of W Florida, and W of the Yucatan peninsula where seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, S to SE winds reaching gale force and rough to very rough seas are ongoing across the north-central Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas coastal waters. These winds and rough seas will diminish early Tue through Tue night ahead of the advancing cold front. The front will weaken as it moves southeastward and briefly stalls from the Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche by early Wed, then will move southeast of the Gulf by Thu evening. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front late Thu and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest Caribbean between high pressure just north of the area and a trough extending from Haiti across Jamaica into Honduras. Light to gentle winds are noted over the central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are seen over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles on the SW periphery of a strong high pressure system that dominates most of the east and central Atlantic. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the NW Caribbean, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, expect fresh to strong E to SE winds to persist through Tue over the northwest Caribbean, between high pressure well north of the Bahamas and a trough extending from Haiti to Jamaica to northeast Nicaragua. A cold frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico tonight will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu night then dissipate. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu before subsiding. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will develop across the Windward Passage Fri into Sat as high pressure builds north of the region behind the next Atlantic cold front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front extending from just E of Bermuda to eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 30N along the front. A pre-frontal trough runs from 28N61W to just E of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 21N to 31N between 59W and 62W in association with the pre-frontal trough. A ridge is noted behind the front and extends southward across Florida and the Bahamas into Cuba. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a strong high pressure center of 1036 mb located W of the Azores near 39N38W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are in the wake of the front N of 26N with seas of 10 to 16 ft N and E of the Bahamas. Ahead of the front fresh to strong SE winds are found N of 25N with seas 9 to 11 ft. Similar wind speeds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the aforementioned strong high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 9ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move eastward overnight and reach from 31N61W to NW Puerto Rico by morning, then weaken considerably as it moves E- SE across the regional Atlantic E of 60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through early Wed. Associated low pressure NW of Bermuda will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N61W on Thu, then dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and large NE to N swell continue behind the front. A narrow high pressure ridge will build southward into the Bahamas tonight through Wed leading to diminishing winds. Large NE swell will build southward, W of 70W, through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue night, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Thu and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri afternoon, and from 31N to central Hispaniola by Sat morning. $$ KRV