Expires:No;;333836 FXAK67 PAJK 170646 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1046 PM AKDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE... No major changes to the forecast this evening as a front pushes across the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will push into the coast and overspread the panhandle tonight through Monday night, with highest totals around an inch, locally higher near Yakutat. For marine areas, Gales continue along the N Gulf coast west of Icy Bale, with 20 to 25 kt winds stretching from Yakutat southward along the coast to southern Baranof through early Monday afternoon as front pushes inland. Strongest inner channel winds around 25 to 30 kts expected within N Lynn Canal northward to Skagway by Monday afternoon. .AVIATION.../through 06z Tuesday/ Front continues to push across the Gulf of Alaska this evening, with a diminishing IFR marine layer along the coastal terminals. Moving through tonight, southern terminals will see gradual decrease in conditions to MVFR or worse as rain overspread the panhandle through 00z Tuesday with CIGS AoB 2000ft and visbys 2 to 3 sm within heavier rain. A Gulf system continues to move northeast, bringing rains and lower cigs across the panhandle. Most sites in the northern panhandle will be IFR/MVFR with cigs sitting around 1-3kft for most of the night. Expect a touch of lifting with daybreak, and as the day wears on Monday rain will dry up for the far northern portions of the panhandle (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY). Some vsby concerns will remain later on Monday towards the central panhandle as rain continues and with that MVFR cigs as well. Winds will be blowing strongly up Lynn Canal, poising Haines for gusts up to 20kts at times, and Skagway with potential to 30kts at times Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 225 PM AKDT Sun Aug 16 2026... .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Generally cooler weather returns early this week behind an approaching front that will break down the high pressure that had brought warm and dry weather. - A more active weather pattern arrives Monday as rain chances return from north to south. Chances for wetting rains remain elevated for much of the week. .SHORT TERM... Low pressure in the Gulf, along with an associated frontal system, continues to push high pressure east of the region. Rain is overspreading the northern Gulf Coast with plenty of clouds overtaking the central and even southern panhandle. The marine layer has finally weakened along coastal areas of the southern panhandle, where inland areas have warmed nicely under some sun and generally just high level cloudiness. Winds have increased in the northern Gulf Coast, but the strongest winds have remained offshore. This trend will generally persist tonight into Monday, while the stronger winds also expand a bit to the southeast. As expected, winds have also increased in and near Lynn Canal, where winds of 15 to 25 knots will persist into at least Monday evening. Rain will also continue to push into the northern and central panhandle this evening, likely reaching Juneau around or just after 06Z. While rainfall will mostly be light to moderate, we do expect some heavier amounts over the northern Gulf Coast, with up to 2 inches through Monday afternoon, highest from Yakutat westward. Much lighter amounts are expected farther south, especially south of about Frederick Sound, where amounts will average one-third of an inch or less. As the low pressure system weakens considerably Monday evening, we expect precipitation to become much more scattered in nature, especially by late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will also build over the central Gulf during this time. While this will keep the low level flow mainly onshore, there could be breaks in the cloudiness, especially over southern areas on Tuesday afternoon. For the next weather system, there are a few differences in the models in regard to timing. Some bring a trough of low pressure into the Gulf Coast region as soon as early Wednesday, while others are about 12 to 24 hours later. For now, we'll continue to hold to a chance of rain returning to the northern and central areas by early Wednesday. For more details on the mid-week forecast and beyond, please see the long term discussion below. .LONG TERM... Extremely little changes to the overall long term forecast, with the only large scale feature of note being a surge of energy from the eastern Bering Sea possibly moving into the northern Alaska Gulf by this weekend. Details are still low on this possible event, but worse case scenario from current solutions is another round of moderate to possibly heavy rain for primarily the northern half of the panhandle, along with an increase in winds. Otherwise, mid to late work week has multiple waves move through mainly the northern half of the panhandle. These waves do not look to bring rain totals greater than an inch, with rain rates not exceeding light intensity. .MARINE... Outside: A 1022mb high pressure continues to take residence over the Gulf, with confidence increasing that it will stick around through at least mid next week. Accompanying this high pressure is broad westerly to northwesterly winds in the NE gulf coast down to Dixon Entrance. Low clouds and mist/patchy fog with visibilities less than 3 miles are possible. Not expecting wind speeds to exceed 15 knot sustained, nor wave heights to exceed 4 ft through Monday. Inside: Conditions across the inner waters continue to remain calm, with winds generally not exceeding 10 knots. With a lack of driving force for change, seeing a rinse and repeat pattern for the next few days. The only windy spot being Taiya Inlet, which may reach up to 15 knots briefly during the afternoon period. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...NC AVIATION...NC MARINE...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau