Expires:No;;924698 FXUS63 KBIS 172334 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 634 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds gusting to around 45 mph over western and portions of central North Dakota this afternoon through early this evening. Winds gusting to 50 mph possible across western and central North Dakota during the day Thursday. - Chances for rain and/or snow showers through Friday, mainly over the northern half of the area (~30-60 percent chance). Greatest snow probability for an inch or more (40-60 percent chance) over the Turtle Mountains region. - Mainly dry conditions expected this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday night into Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Isolated to scattered showers have developed as expected across the northwest and north central. These showers produced some light snow and sleet as they passed through the greater Williston area earlier this afternoon. While some of this activity will diminish as sunset approaches, we will continue to hold onto low to medium rain/snow chances across the northern third of the state given decent synoptic forcing passing through. For this update, blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. The Wind Advisory still looks to be in good shape and will not make any changes at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Currently, large area of upper level low pressure centered over far south central Canada, continues to spin over much of the Northern Plains region. Associated surface low centered over far southwestern Manitoba, with weak CAA west and north central, and WAA south and southeastern areas of the state. Embedded waves within the low continue to rotate southeast and east over northern areas of the region, with light radar returns showing up now in northwestern ND. Will keep a mention of isolated/scattered showers in the forecast for this activity through mid-evening. Winds gusting between 40-45 mph within the advisory area, a few gusts to near 50 mph. Thus, no changes to the wind headlines with this product issuance. It should be noted that these winds are over-performing from what sounding analysis earlier suggested, and will be taken into account for Thursday. Shower coverage should increase over the next several hours as the aforementioned embedded waves rotate farther south into North Dakota, with a rain/snow mix possible west and north central where the cooler air aloft will be located and as boundary layer temperatures drop this evening. Precipitation will then be confined to the north overnight, closer to the forcing of the upper low. Some light snow accumulations will be possible across the north, especially around the Turtle Mountain region where there is a decent chance (~60%) for an inch by Thursday morning. Winds will also remain breezy tonight with steady gradient forcing, but the gust potential should diminish after 00Z as the low level inversion develops, though still somewhat gusty with another surge of CAA spreading south and east across North Dakota. The upper low will slowly move east along the International Border area through Thursday, then continues east along the Minnesota/Canadian border into Friday. Expect another round of showers for Thursday, again the best chances north near the track of the embedded waves, along with windy conditions in the wake of the cold FROPA moving through tonight. BUFKIT soundings indicate a well mixed boundary layer across the region, upwards to 8K feet AGL, where we could easily tap into 40-45 kts of wind to mix down to the surface. Thus, wind headlines are likely during the day Thursday again, and will most likely cover most if not all of western and central ND. With ongoing headlines today, will let the evening or mid shift issue this. Went with a 75/25 NBM/NBM Experimental blend for winds for Thursday giving how things developed today. With snow showers continuing Thursday night into Friday, additional snow accumulations will be possible across the north through Friday morning, with NBM snow probs showing a 60-70% chance for another inch across the Turtle Mountains, and a few tenths elsewhere across the north. So still something to keep an eye on over the next few forecast cycles given the strong winds also expected. The CAA both Thursday and Friday will also result in much below normal highs, ranging in the mid 30s to lower 40s (normal for this time of year is right around 60F). Once the low departs by this coming weekend, we transition back to a northwesterly flow regime, which should result in temperatures trending warmer and back closer to normal values for mid/late April, especially for Sunday when a S/WV ridge and warm frontal zone develops west to east across the region. Mainly dry this weekend, with precipitation chances returning late this weekend into Monday as strong S/WV/clipper system is depicted to push southeast through the area. Will also see an uptick in winds with this wave on Monday, though temperatures remain in the 50s for highs. Broad ridging follows, with high temperatures rebounding back into the 60s by mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Ceilings will eventually dip into MVFR categories late tonight and into Thursday morning across mainly the northern half of the state. A few isolated light rain/snow showers will also be possible across the north but due to the hit and miss variety will only carry VCSH for now. KBIS, KJMS, and KDIK should remain in VFR categories through the period but there could be a period of lower VFR ceilings here late tonight through tomorrow morning. Gusty northwest winds should prevail across all of western and central North Dakota through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...ZH