Expires:No;;817437 FXUS63 KJKL 291351 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 951 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend ensues today, with low relative humidity and gustier west southwest to west winds allowing for a heightened risk for wildfires. - The warming trend continues through early next week. - PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest late this weekend and continue to ramp up through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024 Blended mid morning obs into the forecast, with only minimal/insignificant changes. UPDATE Issued at 754 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and sky cover through this morning. Passing mid-level cloud cover and a somewhat increasing surface pressure gradient has allowed for locations near and north of the Mountain Parkway to rise above freezing. The rest of the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024 The latest upper level map features a trough exiting across the East, with a modest ridge axis aligned from south central Canada down through the Plains. An embedded short wave trough is cruising through the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio Valley, with some mid-level clouds brushing our northern counties currently, helping to keep temperatures more in check up that way. At the surface, high pressure is established from the north central Gulf of Mexico through the Deep South, with ridging nosed northeast through the central Appalachians. A quasi-stationary boundary is draped west to east from the central Plains through the western Ohio Valley. Another mostly clear night with light enough winds in the valleys generally along and south of the Mountain Parkway has allowed for some upper 20s and lower 30s, while more open areas and ridges remain in the lower 40s. The models are in very good agreement aloft through the short term period. The flow will flatten out east of the Rockies, as a low- amplitude short wave trough cruises east northeast from the Desert Southwest, reaching the Midwest by late tonight and then the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region through the day on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar trajectory as its upper level counterpart, moving into the northern Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes region by Saturday. This wave generally dampens with time, with the quasi-stationary boundary remaining far enough north of the Ohio River to allow for a drier trend with the PoPs across our area for the start of the weekend. Above normal temperatures and a dry day can be expected today, as breezier west southwest to west winds help mix down dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon. As such, have stuck closer to the 10th percentile of the blended guidance. Once the mid-level clouds clear by mid-morning, skies will be mostly clear. Consequently, have also leaned on the 75th percentile of the blended guidance for the high temperatures, as most locations will see temperatures rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Higher clouds will thicken and lower tonight as the short wave trough draws closer from the west. Still, eastern valleys should be able to decouple early on, as winds back to the southwest and lighten early on. The coldest valleys will likely dip into the 30s, while ridgetops stay up in the lower 50s. On Saturday, moisture will be on the increase with even gustier southwest winds on tap. As mentioned before, PoPs have trended further north, and given the shallow nature of the moisture depicted in forecast soundings, this seems reasonable. Given this drier trend, have sided with the 75th percentile of the blended guidance for the high temperatures once again, with readings ranging from the lower 70s north of the I-64, to the upper 70s nearer the Tennessee border, where clouds will be less. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024 Very active pattern expected in the extended, as a series of weather systems move through the region. The large scale flow pattern aloft will start out with a very broad area of low pressure extending from portions of the desert southwest, eastward across the Great Plains, the Tennessee Valley, and then the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern CONUS. A strong area of low pressure is still being forecast to move onshore in the southwestern CONUS and California Saturday night. A shortwave trough will be moving through the Ohio Valley along the northern periphery of the southern ridge Saturday night and Sunday, and will bring rain chances to eastern Kentucky as it does so. A weak west to east oriented frontal boundary will accompanying the shortwave as it moves slowly off to the east. The latest model data, ECMWF, GFS, and GFS ensembles, all have the front meandering southward and across the Ohio River into Kentucky Saturday night. This first southward push of the front should only bring rain showers to our area due to a lack of instability and dry air that will have been in place for the past several days. The front should make it to the Tennessee border by around dawn on Sunday, before temporarily retreating northward Sunday and Sunday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in the vicinity of the front. We should see steadily increasing rain chances Monday and Monday and Monday night, as strong area of low pressure ejects out of the central Plains and moves our way. This system will be much stronger than the initial shortwave, and will also push a well defined cold front through the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys to kick off the new work week. This trough of low pressure could bring strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of eastern Kentucky Monday and Tuesday, as the models are increasingly indicating that ample wind energy and instability could be present across the region. However, there is still enough uncertainty in the model data regarding the exact evolution and timing of the first of the week weather system that the forecast is far from a slam dunk at this point. That begin said, with trends slowly leaning toward favorable conditions for thunderstorms from late Sunday through Tuesday night, we will continue to closely monitor the situation in regards to severe weather potential early next week. Rain will linger around the area on Wednesday, and perhaps through Wednesday night and Thursday, as cool, moist air and lift behind the departing trough allow scattered rain showers to remain in place. We will also be seeing strong warm air advection occurring as strong southerly to southwesterly flow sets up ahead of the incoming weather systems, and pumps warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region. In fact, it is looking more and more likely that we will see highs well into the 70s Sunday through Tuesday. Max daytime temperatures in the upper 70s will be out of the question at all for Sunday, as the front retreats northward, winds increase from the south, and clouds scatter out a bit. Monday and Tuesday will still be quite warm, with highs mid to upper 70s and low to mid 70s respectively in spite of the expected rain and extensive cloud cover. Once the stronger of the two incoming troughs of low pressure move through the area mid-week, we will likely see a major drop in temperatures, as much cooler air filters into the region. Highs on Wednesday as much as 20 degrees cooler than what we see on Tuesday. Windy conditions will also be in place through mid-week, as the pressure gradient associated with the departing trough tightens. As these winds shift to the west and northwest Wednesday and Wednesday night, much colder air will stream in. A broad ridge of high pressure is then expected to move into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Even though it will be windy Wednesday night, the expected cold air advection should be strong enough to cool temperatures to around 32 degrees, especially in our valleys. In fact, with mostly clear skies on tap, widespread frost will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will be our secondary weather concern in the extended, behind the potential for strong to severe storms early in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024 High pressure gradually settling to our south will keep VFR conditions in place. Some mid-level clouds will diminish across the northeast portion of the area through mid-morning. High clouds will then move in from the west late this afternoon. These will gradually thicken and lower with time late tonight. At the surface, southwest to west southwest winds of around 5 kts or less will become more west southwest to west at around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts by late this morning and afternoon. Winds will then diminish to 5 to 8 kts out of the southwest after dusk, with a renewed threat of low level wind shear towards dawn. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN