Expires:No;;338041
FXUS63 KMPX 170827
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night.
  Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this
  evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with
  near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast 
packages. A somewhat progressive weather pattern with chances of 
showers and storms across the area this evening/tonight, with 
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday evening. Temperatures will 
hover right around the seasonal average through the period.

.TODAY AND TUESDAY...

Your Monday starts off very similar to how Sunday ended, cooler and 
drier. Quite pleasant for mid August standards. Throughout the day, 
low level southwest flow will increase, which will also promote 
moisture advection ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. This 
frontal boundary is associated with a quick moving upper level 
system that will dive southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and 
towards the Great Lakes Region. Scattered showers and storms are 
expected to develop during the late afternoon timeframe over the 
eastern Dakotas and western MN before progressing east-southeastward 
across MN during the evening hours. A strong storm or two will be 
possible as this activity progresses east-southeastward as 1000-1500 
J/kg of SBCAPE is present, along with more than sufficient shear. By 
Tuesday morning, high res model guidance is hinting at another bout 
of shower/storm activity more southeastward out of SD and into SW 
MN, associated with aforementioned frontal boundary that continues 
to push south through MN. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, 
scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible across the 
forecast as the upper level system departs eastward. 

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thereafter, the flattened upper level high pressure over southern 
half of CONUS will shift westward over the southern Rockies and Four 
Corners Region. This will induce more amplified NW flow aloft across 
MN through the second half of the week. Quiet and fair weather 
conditions will resume with low-end chances of rain Thursday 
afternoon/evening and into Friday as well. Temperatures through the 
remainder of the work week and into the weekend will hover around 80 
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the overnight and through most
of the day. Winds will continue to calm with light at less than
5 knots and VRB in direction. Light winds and SKC to FEW skies
will promote patchy fog across portions of the area, mainly
focused over western WI terminals of RNH and EAU. Fog will lift
by 13-14z over western WI. VFR conditions areawide will resume.
Another round of showers and storms during the late afternoon
and evening hours. PROB30 for -TSRA for MSP after 00z.

KMSP...Chance for some thunderstorms after 00Z tomorrow.
Sticking with a wide PROB30 for now, but will be able to shrink
the time range it covers as it gets closer and confidence
increases.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR