Expires:No;;567082 FXUS65 KLKN 032047 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 147 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Robust weather system impacts the forecast region Saturday and Sunday with strong winds and accumulating rain and snow expected. Low probabilities for precipitation contnue early next week with mostly dry weather expected by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night Weather remains fair tonight with light and variable winds and increasing cloud cover from the northwest the latter half of the night. Overnight low temperatures reside mostly in the 30s. Robust upper low and strong attendant cold front begin influencing the forecast area Saturday morning as the feature moves into NorCal and Nevada. Dynamically driven weather is expected with an increase in south/southwesterly winds Saturday. Advisory and warnining level winds will persist into Saturday night with blowing dust and damaging gusts around 60 mph expected for central Nevada including the US-50 corridor where the high wind warnings are in place. Advisory level sustained winds of around 30 mph are expected across much of southern and eastern Elko county. Strong winds trend lighter while shifting northwesterly in conjunction with the frontal passage Saturday night. That said, winds ceratinly remain at least breezy into Sunday morning. Cold front also brings widespread rain and snow showers to the forecast region with activity generally focused within a broad band situated along the front. Main concern will be rapidly lowering snow levels Saturday night. Based on timing of the frontal progression, White Pine County will be the primary focus of accumulating snow Saturday night and into Sunday morning. IMpacts will also be felt across the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt Range as well as northern Elko County. Lower probabiloities for accumulatiing snow elsewhere. Pass routes across the eastern half of the foreacst area likely see slush ups and light accumulations which will be primarily snowfall rate driven, and produce adverse travel conditions late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Most valley snow totals Saturday night will be around an inch or less. Pass routes in and near WHite Pine COunty, where the greatest impacts are expected, could see 2-5 inches of accumulation. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 60s to low 70s with overnight lows pluimmeting to the low 20s to mow 30s. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday A low pressure system and cold front is expected to move across the forecast area Sunday through Monday, bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and snow showers. Winds will pick up in the afternoon out of the west-northwest to 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Snow levels lower to about 4500-5000 feet by Sunday morning. Light snow showers are possible in the valley locations with some of the locations in central Nevada receiving one to three inches along US Highway 50. Some locally higher amounts will be possible in the high mountain areas of White Pine County, Northern Elko County, and the Ruby Mountains. A 20% chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms exist in portions of central and northern NV as the cold front moves southeastward. By Monday, the trough moves moves east with lingering showers and breezy winds. On the heels of the exiting trough, an upper level wave moves through northern NV Monday afternoon, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-80. Northwest flow continues mid to late next week with mostly dry conditions over the region. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier locales. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals through tonight. A strong low pressure system from the northwest will approach the region by Saturday. Breezy winds from the S-SW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts as high as 30-40 knots at northern terminal sites. Gusts will reach to 40-50 knots at KELY and KTPH, with BLDU possible given the strong winds. Meanwhile, increasing mid to upper-level cloud cover (5KFT and above) will move from west to east as the system moves across the area. -SHRA/VCSH expected at KWMC and KBAM Saturday morning and afternoon with CIGs lowering to MVFR conditions at times, but confidence is low. KWMC is AMD not SKED due to communication issue. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. A strong low pressure system will bring widespread rain and mountian snow to much of northern and central Nevada over the weekend. Over half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected across north central Nevada in northwestern Elko county where most of the flood concerns remain. This will increase flows on several streams and rivers. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in minor flood stage and is expected to remain in minor flood stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Mountain City currently resdies near action stage. The river is forecast to contiue to reside and slightly fluctuate around action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County. High Wind Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday Northeastern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine County. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Southwest Elko County. && $$ 92/90/90