Expires:No;;338001
FXUS65 KFGZ 170826
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
126 AM MST Mon Aug 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm up to 5 degrees above average
throughout the week. Low grade monsoon conditions continue with 
only isolated storms for the first part of the week. By midweek 
thunderstorm coverage begins to increase across the area as more 
moisture is drawn into the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the state will keep the region in
low grade monsoon conditions for the next couple days. Sinking 
air from this feature will warm things back up above average, as 
well as make it harder for showers and storms to develop. Only the
White Mountains and parts of the Rim are expected to see any
activity. High temperatures get pretty close to Extreme Heat
Warning criteria for the lowest parts of the Grand Canyon Tuesday
and Wednesday so the next couple shifts will have to watch and see
if a Heat product needs to be issued for that area.

By midweek the high pressure area shifts to the east and centers
over the Four Corners which is more conducive for more monsoon
moisture to overspread the state. Look for POPs to rise across the
higher terrain Wednesday and by Thursday and Friday most of the
area should see a chance of showers/storms. Temperatures are still
expected to remain above average but a couple degrees cooler which
should keep Heat products from being needed in the lower Grand
Canyon. Continued moisture and cloud cover by this weekend should
get temperatures back down to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/06Z through Tuesday 18/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with brief MVFR conditions possible near ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
over and near higher terrain. Shower/storm coverage will remain 
limited to the higher terrain, with the best chances around the 
White Mountains and along portions of the Rim, with storms 
beginning around 18-22Z and ending around 03Z. Winds will be VRB 
5-10 kt or terrain driven through about 18Z, then SW-W from about
18Z to 03Z and then back to VRB or terrain driven overnight. 
Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/06Z through Thursday 20/06Z...VFR conditions,
MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated to scattered 
showers/storms over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon.
Winds SW-W 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Temperatures 5 degrees above 
average with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each 
day, best coverage over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White 
Mountains. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty and erratic winds 
possible near storms. Minimum RH values 15% lower deserts to 35% in 
the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures continue to be about 5 
degrees above average. Scattered showers over the Mogollon Rim and 
White Mountains on Wednesday, with coverage increasing and spreading 
westward on Thursday and Friday. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty 
and erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Schank
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff