Expires:No;;807147 FXUS64 KHGX 152329 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Warm/cloudy weather will continue through the short term with per- haps a slight chance of rain for our northernmost counties during the overnight hours tonight on into Tue morning. A developing low- level jet coupled with weak forcing along a cold front look to be the main ingredients for these low POPs...mainly across the Piney Woods. Elsewhere, development should be limited by the strong cap in place over the rest of the CWA. This front is then expected to stall just north of (to just along our northern FA) as the flow a- loft becomes more zonal. The warm S/SW flow at the mid levels com- bined with steady S/SE winds at the surface will help to warm the high temperatures tomorrow into the lower and mid 80s...even with persistent clouds streaming in from the west. Lows tonight and to- morrow will be in the lower 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Southeast Texas will remain on the northwest periphery of mid/upper ridging generally centered over the Bay of Campeche. Despite a persistent onshore flow in place, low level capping should keep rain chances on the low side. Can't rule out some isolated activity across n/nw parts of the region at times in association with any stronger impulses in the upper flow that manage to pass though. Heading into Friday, a weak cold front will sag near, or into, northern parts of the area then stall and meander about the area into Saturday. Ridging to the south will begin flattening and the capping situation becomes less hostile. Combination of the two, along with passing embedded upper disturbances should lead to slightly better shots of scattered precipitation. By Saturday night, the front should get some upstream support and begin a push southward. As this occurs, showers and thunderstorm chances become likely across most of the CWA...eventually coming to an end by mid day Sunday as the front moves offshore and to the east. Temperature-wise...moist flow off the Gulf will make it tough to get overnight lows below 70 thru Saturday. And with warm starts to the days, daytime highs shouldn't have much trouble reaching at least the mid 80s & perhaps a bit higher if we get some extended breaks of sunshine. It won't be until after the frontal passage that we'll see temps trend back down toward seasonal norms. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 MVFR CIGS should fill in across the rest of SE Texas this evening, lowering overnight. Brief periods of IFR CIGs could develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours of Tuesday, though stronger winds aloft may be sufficient to keep CIGS in MVFR levels during this early morning period. Gusty SE winds should also resume Tuesday morning, with CIGS gradually lifting throughout the day. VFR conditions may return that afternoon for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor, with some isolated showers/storms possible near KCLL & KUTS (chances too low at the moment to warrant mention in the TAFs). MVFR CIGS are expected to fill back in Tuesday evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Southeast winds 15-20kt and seas building to 4-6ft can be expected tonight and Tuesday. Will maintain the caution flags through the night (probably again tomorrow too). Risk of rip currents on area beaches will be on an upward climb and we may eventually need to put a statement out for those too. Wind speeds and seas will slightly diminish during the second part of the work week. With the warm, moist airmass becoming situated over the slightly cooler shelf waters, wouldn't be surprised to see some periods of 2-6nm visibilities in fog/haze during the Wed night-Sat timeframe. Doubtful we'll see dense fog, however. The next front, and associated showers and thunderstorms, should push off the coast late Saturday night or early Sunday. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 72 86 / 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 85 73 87 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 78 71 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....47 AVIATION...03 MARINE...47