Expires:No;;378496
FXUS64 KHUN 260158
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
858 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An upper low moving to the NE over the Front Range was in part
helping to amplify upper ridging along the greater Mississippi 
Valley. With a weaker upper capping, thunderstorms have formed 
over western KS/NE, with a more persistent storm complex heading 
to the east over western MO. High altitude clouds coming from the 
more eastern convective complex was moving over the Tennessee 
Valley. And under those clouds, local and regional radar views 
indicated light showers in progress from western KY, to over 
Huntsville and Alexander City. 

However, a relatively drier layer under ~700mb/10kft has so far
helped to evaporate most of this rain before it reached the 
surface. Despite the dry air, some locations could receive some 
light rainfall. We have experienced a light shower in the last 45
minutes or so ago. A few meso-stations over NW AL have recorded a
trace to 0.03" in the past few hours. Given the drier layer near 
the surface, most places should not experience any rain; cannot 
rule out a trace to light measurable amounts where the heaviest 
echoes pass over. 

Temperatures mainly in the 60s have resulted in a milder night
than last night. They should cool into the mid and upper 50s by 
daybreak Friday. Will leave lower end rain chances in, to account 
for a potential sprinkle to low measurable amounts as the complex 
to our west nears. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

On Friday, the aforementioned stationary boundary lifts northward
as a warm front. With the lack of moisture, a dry passage is
expected with just an increase in cloud cover and humidity. As 
the series of lows centered over the Plains deepen, the pressure 
gradient across the local forecast area tightens and as a result, 
breezy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday. Wind gusts 
each afternoon of the short term period are forecast to gust up to 
25-35 mph, just below wind advisory criteria. The good news, is 
that the systems to our west will eject northeastward as an upper
level ridge amplifies across the Southeast. This keeps dry weather
through the weekend, but it will feel hot and humid at times. 
Southeasterly flow will warm afternoon temperatures into the lower
80s each day with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Another mid/upper-level trough will sweep NE from the Southern
Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region Sunday
night into Monday. In response, a surface cold front will push 
eastward across the lower-Mississippi Valley and Mid South during 
the day on Monday. The latest guidance continues to trend a little
later with this feature, meaning that most likely Monday will be
another warm/dry day. However, by Monday night into Tuesday,
medium chances (40-60%) for showers/storms are forecast along and
just ahead of this cold front as it pushes into the area. Not
expecting much in the way of an air mass change behind the front,
however, as highs will only dip back a few degrees on Tuesday. We
may begin to enter a more unsettled pattern by mid/late week as
another front may attempt to push in sometime late Wednesday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Despite light rain and clouds, VFR conditions should prevail for 
the whole TAF period at both terminals. Light SHRA/VCSH will 
continue through the overnight hours but no lightning is expected.
Tomorrow, rain will clear around sunrise however gusty SSE winds 
will develop. Gusts up to 20 MPH will be possible through the 
remainder of the TAF period. 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RAD