Expires:No;;189945
FXUS63 KARX 141051
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke continues to impact the area with some hazy/milky
  skies overhead today.

- Rain chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday 
  (35-55% probs for 24-hr QPF >=0.25"). 

- Additional periodic shower and storm chances forecast through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Hazy/Milky Skies & Low Precip Chances South (Early) Today:

GOES satellite imagery and RAP progs around 07Z showed an upper
level low generally over Missouri, with a few showers still 
spread across portions of Iowa into Missouri and Illinois. 
Latest hi-res guidance would continue to keep the majority of 
showers south of the local forecast area, but have noticed some 
echos developing along portions of southwestern Wisconsin. Have 
maintained some small precipitation chances along our south to 
reflect current observations and guidance from latest hi-res 
models. 

The aforementioned system is expected to continue to slowly shift 
eastward. With winds turning more northeast/east latest HRRR/RAP-
Smoke guidance suggests highest concentrations of near-surface smoke 
will continue to push southwest/west of the local area for today. 
Though, increased concentrations of smoke aloft will still keep some 
milky skies around. 
 
Mid-week Precipitation Chances:

Model guidance suggests shortwave ridging may be in place for the 
early part of the day Wednesday before shifting eastward. A 
shortwave trough is forecast to move behind it across the Northern 
Plains as shortwave energy moving out from the Southern Plains
ejects towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. With some increasing
moisture and limited instability ahead of the associated 
surface front, scattered showers and storms are forecast to move
across the area. Latest blended model guidance has slightly 
slowed down the arrival of the showers and storms into the 
overnight hours Wednesday, with increasing chances (40-70%) into
the day Thursday. Right now the risk for severe storms 
continues to be low for the local forecast area, but will 
continue to monitor conditions. 

Additional Precip Chances End of Week - Weekend:

The upper level pattern appears to remain progressive through the 
period as various shortwaves move through. However, significant 
differences in details are still noted between ensemble solutions, 
lowering overall confidence in timing and location of any 
shower and storm chances. In turn, the NBM maintains broad rain
chances (20-40%) over the region through the period and we will
hold with these for now until details can be refined further. 
There is also some signal in ensemble guidance for a slight 
increase in temps across the region for the start of the 
weekend, with perhaps some potential to see highs into the 
mid/upper 70s to near 80. However, temperature spread does 
increase into the weekend as well. Overall, will continue to 
iron out the details in the coming days as confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

CIGS: wildfire smoke from Canada will keep milky, hazy skies through 
tonight. Meanwhile, low (MVFR) clouds have developed in a region of 
residual low level moisture and a sfc trough. These will impact both 
KRST/KLSE, but could be more in and out before short term guidance 
scatters them out by mid/late morning. 

WX/vsby: RAP/HRRR has pulled most of the low level smoke impacts 
west of the TAF sites and don't expect any sfc vsby restrictions as 
a result. 

WINDS: easterly around 10 kts today. Not much wind a loft to mix 
down so not expecting much for gusts. Holds east tonight but 
lightens up.  

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION.....Rieck