Expires:No;;011967
FXUS65 KVEF 110812
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
111 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Shower chances along with isolated thunderstorms will 
occur in eastern Lincoln, northeast Clark and Mohave Counties today. 
Sunday onward, a sharp climb in temperatures into above normal 
territory is expected with dry and breezy conditions in the 
afternoons. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.

Radar continues to detect some light rain showers over far northeast 
Mohave County at this hour. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear to 
partly cloudy. Everyone's buzzing about the northern lights. Not 
only are they visible tonight, but they should be visible through 
the weekend.

The cutoff low over southern Nevada will move steadily east across 
southern Utah and northern Arizona today. Cyclonic shear associated 
with the cutoff low will help generate the greatest instability 
across northwest Arizona, northeast Clark and eastern Lincoln 
Counties this afternoon and early evening. Again, blended NBM with 
camPoPs to better capture the convective potential. Gusty outflow 
winds will occur with stronger storms. Dry and warmer on Sunday as a 
ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the west.   

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

Model clusters are in reasonable agreement through Tuesday showing 
mean ridging just off the Pacific Northwest Coast and weak low 
pressure over or near southern California. This suggests above 
normal temperatures and dry conditions, except possibly over the 
Sierra, where southeasterly upslope flow could kick off a few 
thunderstorms. Model agreement breaks down pretty quickly 
thereafter, mainly centered around whether and to what degree to 
amplify a trough rolling through western Canada. Clusters strongly 
favor generally dry weather Wednesday through Saturday, but from 
Thursday onward, temperature forecasts become very uncertain. For 
example, the ECMWF ensemble MOS gives high temperatures at KLAS 
ranging from 80F to 99F. Will watch how the pattern evolves over the 
next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northerly winds increase to over 10 
knots early this morning, decreasing again to less than 10 knots in 
the afternoon. Showers may develop in northeast Clark County, but 
confidence is low in any showers reaching the Las Vegas Valley. 
Outflow winds from showers leading to changes in wind direction and 
speed cannot be ruled out. By the evening, winds shift to the 
southwest, maintaining that direction through the night. FEW-SCT mid 
and high clouds stream across the area throughout the forecast 
period. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...TAF sites will experience north to northeast winds over 
10 knots this morning, decreasing later in the afternoon and 
evening. One exception is KDAG, where southwesterly winds may remain 
over 10 knots through the evening.  Convection over northern 
Clark/Mohave counties is not expected to reach the terminals, but 
outflow winds may bring temporary changes in wind direction and 
speed. Winds will begin to follow a diurnal pattern starting this 
evening. FEW-SCT mid and high clouds stream across the area 
throughout the forecast period. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Meltzer

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