Expires:No;;948911 FXUS63 KLMK 100535 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 135 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Widely scattered storms possible north through east of Louisville Saturday afternoon. * Active pattern next week with daily chances of showers and storms Monday through Thursday. Severe weather is not expected through at least Tuesday. Strong storm chances may increase slightly by Wednesday-Thursday, but confidence is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Secondary cold front has continued moving across north-central Kentucky this evening with moderate 1000-700 mb cold air advection to maintain low-level lapse rates steepened, per SDF ACARS, and isolated gustiness past sunrise. Water vapor imagery clearly shows a positively-tilted shortwave trough dropping from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley tonight providing the necessary forcing to promote light rain/sprinkle chances in the post-frontal stratus layer. This increases confidence in a low PoP scenario tonight, especially around sunrise when CAM guidance shows higher probability of light rain. Nonetheless, thunder is not considered at the moment given developing strong inversion above 850-mb . Other that that, winds will shift to the north and remain light throughout the night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A mid/upper level trough continues to drop southeast from the Upper Midwest, with a mid-level speed max streaming east from Missouri across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Sfc low pressure will continue to move east-southeast across central IN and southern OH this afternoon, dragging a cold front through the region. There is still some low-level moisture available with sfc dewpoints still in the mid 60s. Temperatures have struggled today beneath stratus, however readings are quickly rebounding into the mid 70s as the low clouds scatter out from west to east. Temperatures are still likely to top out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The nearby sfc low and approaching cold front will provide modest lift as the airmass destabilizes. Much of the precip will remain on the cool side of the system, closer to I-70 and north. However, a few isolated cells could develop across southern IN and northern KY. There is some mid-level warm air to overcome still, as seen on recent SDF ACARS soundings, and coverage will remain quite sparse. Mainly dry weather is anticipated, but a few isolated showers and storms will be possible north of I-64 into the evening hours. With steeper low-level lapse rates and a dryer column, an isolated storm or two could produce localized gusty winds. Effective bulk shear of 50+ kts is also more than sufficient for some organization, so there may be very brief window for small to marginally severe hail. However, confidence in a stronger storm is low due to very limited coverage. Tonight looks fairly quiet with mainly dry weather continuing. A secondary sfc trough will drop south through the area into Friday morning. Winds veer northerly in its wake, with a more notable surge of cooler air. Stratus will blanket the region from north to south early Friday morning, and cannot rule out a stray light shower or sprinkle. Clouds will linger into the afternoon hours before partial clearing late in the day. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s in most places with a brisk north wind. A few spots will top out near 70 F. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Stacked low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will swing a cold front through the Ohio Valley around mid-day Saturday. Soundings show a strong mid-level cap and very little moisture, so will keep PoPs low and restricted to areas east of I-65 that will be ahead of the front in the afternoon. There is a bit of instability below the cap and the mercury should rise a few degrees above convective temperatures so will include mention of thunder. Sunday is still looking good as a small bubble of high pressure crosses the Tennessee Valley. After a cool start in the mid 40s to around 50, under mostly sunny skies temperatures will peak in the 70s in the afternoon, right at normal values for this time of year. An active pattern develops next week with a 5H trough moving through the region Tuesday and a stronger trough coming in from the west late week. The Gulf will open up early in the week, allowing enough moisture to include showery precipitation in the forecast. CAPE and shear are weak Monday and Tuesday, so severe weather is not expected, but there's enough instability to include mention of thunder. Confidence is very low by mid/late week, but the general idea is for an increase in moisture and instability, with shower and thunderstorm chances ahead of an approaching Plains upper trough. The main threats for severe weather look to be from the southern Plains through the Southeast, but there are indications of a slight uptick in strong storm chances in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday or Thursday. High temperatures next week will primarily be in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Shortwave trough producing low stratus and pockets of sprinkles currently across central and southern IN will continue to drop southward through the pre-dawn hours. This bring CIGS to MVFR ranging from around 1500-2500ft. Some of the guidance wants to bring some CIGS to around IFR (< 1000Ft) but didn't feel the confidence based on current obs warranted putting them in the forecast. Winds will also become more northerly as the boundary works through and keeping winds there through the day to around 10-15kts. Clouds slowly clear out later this afternoon from north to south and become more scattered returning to VFR. Winds remain northerly but also diminish some as we go into the evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...ALL SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...BTN