Expires:No;;269521
FXUS64 KMEG 240225
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
925 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A cold front will begin to push across the Mid-South tonight. The
upper support along the front continues to weaken and showers will
gradually dissipate as the front pushes south into the area. 
Areas along the KY/MO borders stand the best chance of seeing some
rain though QPF amounts will be light...less than a tenth inch. 
Forecast is on track with no changes needed. 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A weak cold front will bring a low chance of showers to the region
late tonight through tomorrow morning. Another beautiful day is
top for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and low humidity.
Unsettled weather will begin Thursday and persist through
Saturday. Warm and humid conditions will result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Widespread showers 
and thunderstorms are possible early next week as a cold front 
moves across the region. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A dry and windy day across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are near normal with highs in the mid 70s and winds
between 15 and 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. A wind
advisory remains in effect through 8PM CDT for the strongest winds
up and near the Missouri Bootheel. Winds will subside after
sundown. 

A weak cold front and associated shortwave will move into the 
region after midnight and weaken as it moves south. A few showers 
and isolated storms are possible through early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will remain nearly a carbon copy on Wednesday, 
albeit without the strong wind.

Rain chances will return to the Mid-South early Thursday as the
aforementioned front lifts back north as a warm front across the 
region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front lifts
north, however, upper level heights may actually build and cap 
storms downstream of a deepening longwave trough near the Four
Corners Region.  

The Mid-South will remain just east of the main storm track
through the weekend. This will result in just isolated to
scattered convection on Friday and Saturday, mainly west of the
Mississippi River. The aforementioned longwave trough will take 
on a negative tilt and eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley on 
Sunday. A surface low and cold front are progged to develop over 
the Central Plains and move into the Mid-South Sunday into 
Monday. There remains some timing disagreements between synoptic 
solutions, which could affect the current SPC Outlooks.
Nonetheless, widespread storms look likely and a few could be
strong to severe, mainly west of the Mississippi River. 

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. As a weak cold
front moves through overnight, scattered showers will accompany
the frontal boundary. Coverage looks light enough to preclude any
mention of prevailing SHRA and any CIGs should be well over 4kft.
Winds should gradually swing around from the SW to NE by tomorrow
morning, generally remaining between 6-10 kts.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD