Expires:No;;041596 FXUS64 KEWX 200000 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 700 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Mainly zonal flow aloft over South Central Texas today with a surface front draped from west to east across the CWA. This front is expected to stall this evening and will aid in the shower and storm chances tomorrow. Mainly dry conditions are expected through this afternoon, although a stray shower or weak storm could be possible in this regime. Cloud cover and north to east winds will keep conditions noticeably cooler today than previous days with highs mainly in the 70s to the north and 80s in the south. Better precipitation chances are seen in the west later this evening as a weak upper level disturbance may ignite some thunderstorms over Mexico that move into areas along the Rio Grande. Low to moderate CAPE but sufficient shear indicate a strong storm cannot be ruled out as it moves over the river, although they would likely quickly weaken as they continue east into the overnight hours. Some additional disturbances bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday morning, although the better forcing comes later in the afternoon through Sunday morning. This is due to an upper level shortwave that moves over the area as the quasi- stationary front continues to linger across South Central Texas. Moderate CAPE and bulk shear of around 40-45 knots will lead to a low threat for isolated severe storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts would be be the main concern with elevated storms and SPC has continued a Level 1 of 5 Risk across much of South Central Texas for this potential. With PWATs up to 200 percent of normal for mid- April, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, especially if training storms are seen. Thunderstorms may produce isolated flooding across locations that see the heaviest totals which are currently forecast over the northeastern portion of the CWA. WPC continues the Level 1-2 risk for excessive rain across much of the area for tomorrow into Sunday. Overall, rainfall amounts range from around 0.5-2 inches. Drier conditions return from west to east after midnight through Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Cool, dry, and breezy conditions can be expected during the day Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the southern Plains, finally pushing the lingering cold front out into the Gulf. The remainder of the long term period looks to be quiet from a weather standpoint as 500mb ridging builds into the region from the west. This will also lead to a gradual warming trend through next week. Towards the end of the work week, indications are that a shortwave or two will move quickly from the Desert Southwest into the Plains, but there is a good amount of model disagreement regarding both timing and trajectories. Whether or not the shortwave(s) move more into the central or southern Plains will be the primary driver of precipitation chances late in the week. For now, we will stick with the NBM which introduces low chances for thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA on Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Cigs are hovering right at or just above MVFR along the I-35 corridor and should remain as such over the next couple of hours. Will continue to mention TEMPO groups to account for this trend, then show prevailing MVFR for SAT and SSF beginning 02Z. For I-35, cigs will continue to lower overnight into IFR as fog develops. Cigs may be slow to rise tomorrow given northeast winds and expected slow increase in coverage of showers. Will continue to mention PROB30 group for I-35 for tomorrow, especially late afternoon and evening. Suspect SHRA/TSRA will trend upward in subsequent forecasts in TEMPO or prevailing groups. Out west at DRT, we will continue to monitor convective trends over the higher terrain of Mexico. For now, it still appears some SHRA/TSRA can be expected between 03-07Z. Cigs should lower quickly into IFR after 07Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 72 52 65 / 20 80 90 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 73 51 64 / 10 70 90 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 75 53 67 / 10 70 90 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 67 50 62 / 30 80 90 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 79 60 75 / 40 70 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 69 50 63 / 20 80 90 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 79 53 71 / 20 70 80 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 74 52 66 / 10 70 90 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 75 55 64 / 10 70 90 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 76 54 67 / 20 70 90 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 78 56 69 / 20 70 80 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...17 Aviation...Platt