Expires:No;;444785
FXUS63 KIWX 291631
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1131 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong west to northwest winds today will gust to 55 mph. An
  occasional gust to 60 mph is possible near Lake Michigan.

- Lake effect snow and blowing snow is likely near and north of
  the toll road over Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan.

- Cold this week to end 2025 and start the New Year. Highs will
  be mostly in the 20s with wind chills frequently dipping to
  near zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

The fast moving cold front has cleared northwest Ohio as of 4 
AM EST. Very strong winds behind the front have been buffeting 
the entire forecast area. The strong pressure gradient will 
remain over the area through today allowing the strong winds to 
continue. West to northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 
55 mph have been occuring overnight. These strong winds are 
expected to continue today. Have continued the Wind Advisory for
the entire area. A few gust to 60 mph are likely along Berrien 
County shoreline of Lake Michigan. The surface low was over the 
Georgian Bay with a center pressure below 984 mb. The flash 
freeze has been occuring overnight with areas of water on 
pavement rapidly freezing and producing icy spots. 

Light snow has been falling associated with the low pressure 
system. The snow was beginning to be enhanced downstream of Lake
Michigan where the heavier snow amounts are expected. Lake 
effect snow amounts generally between 3 and 5 inches are 
expected; however, locally bands will likely be capable of 
producing 6" or more. Snow ratios should be quite high later 
today with values rising to between 15:1 and 20:1. Temperatures 
this upcoming week will not be able to recover much with highs 
mainly in the 20s with lows in the teens. Wind chill values 
should dip frequently to zero. At this time, do not plan to 
issue a Cold Weather Advisory, but plan to mention these cold
temperatures in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product and also 
social media products. Otherwise, a second surge of arctic air 
will help keep highs below freezing to end 2025 and begin the
new year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

LES and blowing snow the primary concern this afternoon into
tonight with varying visby's in and out of LES bands and gusty
west winds. Cigs will generally remain MVFR, with visby's mainly
ranging between LIFR and IFR at KSBN, and IFR to MVFR at KFWA.
Winds and LES coverage then diminish some tonight as drier 
begins to filter in. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for 
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday 
     for INZ005-103-104-204.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ078-079-177-
     277.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel