Expires:No;;650166 FXUS64 KOHX 301715 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and localized flooding are possible with stronger storms. - Temperatures warm back well into the 90s late week with drier weather currently expected for Independence Day and the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 No change with this forecast update. An area of weak mid-level high pressure is situated to our SE, over the Atlantic while a mid-level trough axis extends south over the Dakotas/Upper- Midwest. This trough axis looks to slightly deepen and push E through Tuesday. This will cause us to remain under this summer afternoon showers and thunderstorms pattern through Tuesday. There is a low chance for some storms to become strong to severe across the NW this afternoon. Afternoon instability and lapse rates look good, but weak wind shear will lead to very slow to stationary storm motion. With latest CAMs suggesting CAPE values around 3,000 J/kg and lapse rates between 7-8 C/km, some storms could develop a strong updraft/downdrafts before ultimately collapsing. As storms collapse, strong winds could develop. Greatest threats will be torrential rain, gusty winds, and lightning. This morning's balloon launch shows PWATs at 2.06 inches, close to the daily record of 2.17 inches. More scattered storms will develop Tuesday as the mid-level trough moves through the area. Despite a little more upper support, shear will remain low with 10-15 kts of effective shear. Soundings still look water-loaded with poor lapse rates which won't support much of a severe risk. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 High pressure builds in from the W as the trough pushes off to the E, and a surface cold front sweeps through Tuesday night. This sets up slightly less humid air and dry conditions for mid week, extending through the holiday weekend. Yes, that's right, no rain in the forecast for all of your Independence Day celebrations this year! I think we at least deserve that, after how wet we have been. Showers and thunderstorm chances begin to return next Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Lower ceilings will build into the afternoon through the evening hours for all taf sites. Scattered pop up thunderstorm chances increase as we approach the evening hours. However, confidence in timing is low, and amendments are possible throughout the afternoon. There is a medium chance of patchy fog over the plateau tonight. Additionally, there will be low ceilings building in overnight, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 88 70 90 / 30 60 0 0 Clarksville 73 87 68 89 / 30 30 0 0 Crossville 68 82 65 85 / 40 80 10 10 Columbia 71 85 68 88 / 40 60 10 0 Cookeville 70 83 68 85 / 40 70 10 0 Jamestown 68 82 66 85 / 40 80 10 0 Lawrenceburg 70 85 68 87 / 40 70 20 0 Murfreesboro 71 86 68 90 / 40 70 10 0 Waverly 70 85 67 88 / 30 30 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Clements