Expires:No;;005339 FXUS63 KOAX 190853 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below-normal temperatures through this weekend with freezing conditions likely (>90%) Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Warming temperatures next week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and/or Monday night, and again late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Today through Sunday: An amplified midlevel trough from Ontario into the Upper-MS Valley and northern Plains early this morning will shift east today ahead of another shortwave trough digging south through the northern and central Plains tonight into Saturday night. In the low levels, surface ridging currently from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into central Plains will weaken today with another cold front moving through the region tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure in the wake of the cold front will then build through the area on Sunday. A band of midlevel clouds currently across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA may may expand north by this afternoon with highs ranging from around 50 near the SD border to upper 50s across southeast NE and southwest IA. Breezy conditions are expected to develop across parts of northeast NE into west- central IA with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. However, given the recent rainfall, we don't anticipate any wildfire concerns. The clouds will decrease from north-to-south tonight with temperatures falling below freezing, especially north of I-80. Lingering cloudiness is expected to keep temperatures slightly above the freezing mark in southeast NE. A slightly cooler air mass will filter into the region Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. We could see an increase in clouds again Saturday before skies clear again Saturday night. Winds will also become light Saturday night into Sunday morning, allowing for good radiational cooling. As such, it appears that overnight lows will fall before the freezing mark at most locations. By Sunday afternoon, low-level warm advection is forecast to develop across the area, allowing temperatures to bounce back into the low 60s. The models have trended west/southwest with any precipitation, so this forecast update will indicate a dry forecast through Sunday. Monday through Thursday: The 00z global ensembles indicate slight timing differences on the progression of a shortwave trough through the northern Plains and upper-MS Valley Monday and Monday night. And, those differences aloft lead to uncertainty in the timing of the associated surface cold front through the area. Nonetheless, the models suggest mean PW values increasing to around 0.75" ahead of the front, which will support a chance of showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two on Monday and/or Monday night. Thereafter, attention turns to the next significant trough, which is forecast to emerge into the Great Plains late next week. In regard to temperatures, we will see a return to near-normal daytime readings next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with a lack of mid-level clouds and no vis restrictions. Westerly winds have calmed this evening and will become light and variable. Expect winds to pick up about mid-day on Friday before relaxing again at sunset. They'll be out of the northwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>052. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ053-065>068- 078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056- 069-080. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ079-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Nicolaisen