Expires:No;;248203 FXUS65 KPUB 231721 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1121 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions continue over the San Luis Valley this afternoon and evening. - Generally cooler and cloudier over the plains. A few showers will be possible late afternoon and evening, mainly over the Palmer Divide and over/near the mountains. - Critical fire weather conditions expected on Wednesday across the San Luis Vally, and then expand to much of south central and southeast Colorado Thursday and Friday. - Winds gusting up to around 50 mph, potentially higher, are expected on Thursday, along with a low risk of strong to severe storms across the eastern plains. - Next system to affect the area this weekend looks to bring areawide increases in rain and snow chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 With the passing cold front mostly already through our area this morning, we will be seeing some changes from yesterday's weather. High temperatures will be a fair bit cooler than yesterday, with most of the area remaining in the high-60s to low-70s. Winds over the plains will remain easterly while flow aloft and over the mountains will retain a westerly component. Some clouds will push up against the mountains/plains interface while the San Luis Valley will remain mostly sunny and dry. Westerly winds will downslope off of the higher terrain and into the base of the valley, lowering humidity values below critical thresholds. This, along with the general gusty winds, will result in critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon and into early evening. Models are also showing some scattered shower activity late this afternoon, first over the mountains and Palmer Divide, but later in the day the westerly steering flow aloft could end up pushing some precipitation eastward onto parts of the plains. At this time showers appear high-based and relatively light, though I wouldn't rule out a rumble of thunder or two over or east of the Palmer Divide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Rising heights will make way to a return to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, with a relatively quiet start to the day. In this setup, will see lee troughing support increases in south/southeast flow across the plains, which will result in higher dew point air at the surface. As this trough is in place, veering 700mb winds/flow will provide a window of some WAA across the eastern plains. Would think precip chances would increase on Wednesday, but with a rather stout cap in place and with limited deeper moisture, quiet conditions with no real precip development is expected across southern Colorado. Along and west of the I-25 corridor, will see drier air moving off the higher terrain support falling dewpoints and RH values. Gusty southwest winds do look to develop once again Wednesday afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions developing across the San Luis Valley. The extent of the drier air and stronger winds/gusts across the southern Sangres and far southern I-25 corridor is in question, and so have not issued any Fire Weather headlines at this time. Will message spotty critical fire weather conditions in this area, but will monitor for possible higher coverage and the need for a Fire Weather headline. Further to the east, the higher dewpoint air with cooler temperatures due to some lingering cloud cover will keep fire danger low at this time. An upper level low/trough lifting across the region on Thursday could potentially bring a rather active day, with a number of hazards possible across southern Colorado. Of most concern and where confidence is highest, is the high fire danger over much of south central and southeast Colorado. While not quite looking extreme, it looks to be rather close, with west southwest winds gusting up to around 50 mph and RH values as low as 10 percent. At this point, the forecast of above normal temperatures will into the 70s and 80s and dew points in the teens seems reasonable, but could easily see lower dew points develop. Additionally, there are hints that winds could occasionally gust to around 60 mph Thursday afternoon and at this time it looks like the highest chances would be south of Highway 50, where the jet axis will move overhead. Either way, fire danger will be high on Thursday, with fire weather headlines appearing likely with later forecasts. Lastly, there will be a small window for the possibility for strong to severe storms to develop Thursday afternoon into early evening over the far eastern plains. This potential will be situated along and east/northeast of a deepening surface low and where a ribbon of higher moisture and instability will reside. While chances for severe storms will be highest just to the east, can't completely rule out at least an isolated stronger storm, before the drier air surges and the focus/instability shift out of the area Thursday evening. Friday into Saturday look to remain active days, with high fire danger continuing across the plains Friday and with increases in precip chances especially Friday into Saturday. Another upper level low looks to pivot across the region and while there is some uncertainty with exact trends/track, model consensus at this point is for increased chances for mountain snow and rain over the lower levels. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially as this system looks to wrap moisture and instability back into the area. Can't completely rule out some snow over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide this weekend and will continue to closely monitor, but at this time, confidence is low on this snow and potential impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Scattered to broken mid and high level cloudiness over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide expected through the afternoon to mid-evening. Surface winds across the eastern plains will be predominantly out of the E-SE at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kts, affecting KCOS and KPUB. Isolated shower activity forecast over the higher terrain this afternoon, which could encroach on KCOS, so made a mention of VCSH there between 23z-03z. SW winds gusting up to 25 kts expected across the San Luis Valley this afternoon, affecting KALS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...MOORE