Expires:No;;433016
FXUS63 KGLD 262344
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region
  Saturday afternoon and evening. All hazards will be possible.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the day Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A closed upper low continues to lift to the northeast this 
afternoon, bringing scattered showers to the region through the day. 
 Showers appear to have moved out of most of the eastern tiers of 
counties.  However, additional showers are on the doorstep of 
western Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties.  A few showers and 
isolated thunderstorms may continue to be possible through the rest 
of this afternoon and into this evening.  Overnight lows will fall 
into the 40s across the region.  A few isolated 30s may be possible 
across portions of eastern Colorado.  

Heading into Saturday, the Tri-State area comes under southwest 
flow, with a closed upper low over the Four Corners region.  Through 
the day, the low will move east, across southeastern Colorado and 
into northwestern Kansas.  Portions of the area will have a boundary 
draped southwest to northeast across central Kansas.  Another 
boundary will be coming in from the south.  CAMS have been showing 
the potential for thunderstorm development over the area Saturday 
afternoon.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with all 
hazards expected.  The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for 
severe weather over the area. CAMS are showing storms 
developing over our area tomorrow afternoon and move across the 
area. After yesterday's thunderstorms, portions of the area may 
need to be monitored for possibly hydrology issues.

Heading into Sunday, the closed low will continue to lift to the 
northeast, into central Nebraska.  Precipitation is expected to 
taper off southwest to northeast through the day.  Expect highs to 
be in the 50s and 60s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A relatively calm pattern is expected in the long-term. 
Northwesterly flow Monday will become zonal and eventually 
southwesterly into Wednesday morning. We could see a weak shortwave 
move through the area Tuesday night, increasing PoPs into the teens 
across the northern CWA. 

Tuesday afternoon is looking dry, with minimum RH values in the
upper teens in Greeley county. Winds will be gusting around 20
kts, leading to elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Prolonged fire weather conditions currently look
unlikely (~15%), but cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday or Thursday looks like it will be the next chance at an 
impactful event. A positively tilted upper-level trough will impact 
the region in this timeframe. Details are very murky for this run of 
model guidance, but PoPs are in the teens to 30s for Wednesday night 
through Thursday. Storms are possible during this time, confidence 
that severe weather will occur is less than 15%.

Lingering showers and low end storms will continue for the remainder 
of the period, but may clear out sooner if the trough moves to the 
east quicker.

Temperatures are forecast to warm up through Wednesday, mid 70s to 
mid 80s are expected. The current forecast has the cold front 
coming through Thursday morning, so cooler temperatures will 
result. Highs in the upper 60s for Thursday will result with 
temperatures increasing about 5 degrees Friday. Overnight 
temperatures will be fairly stable in the 40s for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KGLD: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of
the overnight hours. Winds will continue to decrease to ~ 5-10
kts as they become more northerly after sunset. Ceilings will 
lift heading into the evening and overnight hours. Winds shift 
to the northeast tomorrow and ceilings are expected to lower to 
MVFR during the morning (~15-18Z) as another storm system moves
in after 18Z. With a lack of confidence in storm coverage for
tomorrow afternoon, have decided to leave them out of the TAFs
at this time. 

At KMCK: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much 
of the overnight hours. Northwest winds will gradually shift to
the north/northeast tomorrow morning remaining at 5-10 kts.
After ~20Z, showers and storms are possible at least within the
vicinity of the terminal. With a lack of confidence in storm 
coverage for tomorrow afternoon, have decided to leave them out 
of the TAFs at this time. 

Any thunderstorm activity tomorrow may result in reductions to
visibility and wind shifts at both terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

With the rainfall received over the region in the past 24 
hours, and what is expected from showers and storms today and 
this weekend, we will be monitoring those areas already prone 
from recent rains. With some locales receiving 1-2" already and
the potential for another localized 1-2" in spots already 
hit, hydro concerns could crop up concerning localized 
flooding.

There are currently no Flood products issued/in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK
HYDROLOGY...JN