Expires:No;;956810 FXUS66 KSTO 100837 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 137 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will bring dry weather with widespread above normal temperatures through the weekend and well into next week, with Valley highs in the 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Upper troughing continues to build in the Great Basin today with ridging in the Eastern Pacific extending into the Pacific NW. This will keep us in the fairly warm and dry pattern throughout the short term. Temperatures in the Valley will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with 70s and low 80s in the mountains and foothills respectively. The Valley can expect to see periods of moderate HeatRisk over the next few days, warmest Saturday afternoon. The low in the Great Basin looks to shift west later this morning which gives an outside chance of showers south of Hwy. 50 in eastern Tuolumne County. NBM probabilities are sparse and less than 10% chance for our forecast area so all signs point to there not being enough lift and moisture to see any impactful precipitation to form. Monday brings a better chance to see a shower or two similarly south of Hwy. 50 as a trough makes its way into the Great Basin. NBM probabilities for thunderstorm development is low (10-15% chance) and will face similar challenges as Friday's weather with it being too dry for anything significant to form. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Clusters continue to show ridging with zonal flow late week as the dominant forecast feature through the extended, continuing our stretch of above normal temperatures and generally dry weather. Clusters show some uncertainty regarding the strength of the ridge in the Pacific creating a larger range of possibilities for afternoon temperatures late next week. The NBM reflects this high temperature uncertainty, with spread of 10-15 degrees mid to late week across points of the Valley, making exact forecast details uncertain at this point. The current forecast has afternoon high in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Valley with mainly 70s and 80s for the mountains and foothills. Clusters hint at a troughing pattern developing next weekend that may bring cooler temperatures with light precipitation but the forecast is too far out for any definitive details at the moment. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local north to northeast surface wind gusts 15-25 kts thru 20Z, otherwise surface wind gusts less than 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$