Expires:No;;633979 FXUS63 KSGF 042327 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) through this evening, most areas remain dry. - Widespread rainfall will occur on Sunday with a slight risk for excessive rainfall (2/4) and localized flooding. No severe weather expected on Sunday. - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC highlights a Slight Risk (2/5) for this area. Primary hazards are damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Unsettled weather will persist through mid-week. Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall during this period between 1 to 3 inches may support a localized flooding threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Through Tonight: Broad southwest flow over the central CONUS continues to support unsettled weather. Recent satellite imagery and observations depict the approach of a frontal boundary into the area this afternoon. Ahead of the frontal boundary, coverage has remained minimal across the area. The strongest forcing has remained south of the area, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms suppressed across northern Arkansas. Expect the frontal boundary and associated shortwave to translate through the region as we progress through this afternoon and evening. Recent hi-res guidance suggests a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across portions of southern Missouri, or along and south of Interstate 44. Overall, coverage is not expected to be widespread. An analysis of the environment suggests some instability (1000-1500 J/kg) ahead of the frontal passage, with rather marginal deep layer shear around 20 to 25 knots. Quality low-level moisture remains present, with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. However, mid and high level moisture content remains unimpressive at less than 50% through the column. Given the setup, there is a low chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm through this evening. Primary hazards include quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Otherwise, a rather dry and pleasant evening for most of the area. By tonight, the frontal passage slides southeast through the area with slightly cooler temperatures. Lows vary from lower 50s (north) to upper 50s (south). Sunday: As quick as one shortwave exits, additional energy builds out of the Southern Plains overnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop late tonight into early Sunday morning across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri ahead of a building MCS across Oklahoma. As forcing increases through morning into the afternoon, expect coverage to increase with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms (60-80% PoPs). While the forcing appears more favorable for widespread coverage, instability and shear are weak. No severe thunderstorms are expected at this time through Sunday. Meanwhile, the attention turns towards localized heavy rainfall and potential flooding. PWAT values are forecast to be around a 1.25 to 1.50 inches across far southeast Kansas into southern Missouri. This will support efficient rainfall rates in this area. HREF Probability-Matched Mean (PMM) hints at localized corridors of heavier rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches. This will be of particular concern where thunderstorms repeat over the same areas. Additionally, the ground remains rather saturated from previous rainfalls (see Hydrology section). These factors may support a localized flash flood threat through Sunday afternoon/evening, though confidence is not high enough to issue a Flood Watch at this time. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next 12 hours. A bit cooler on Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain exits the area from west to east Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Monday-Wednesday: A strong negatively tilted upper level trough moves across the Central Plains into early next week. This feature may be slow to progress, bringing several days of potential unsettled weather. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall. Daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For Monday, guidance suggests plenty of dry time through late morning and afternoon, outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm (10-30%). As the upper level trough digs a bit further south into the region, an associated cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. While there remains some discrepancies among some ensemble members on exact timing, the general consensus is that showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across the west into Monday night. Recent trends continue to highlight the most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms sets up along and west of Interstate 49 corridor. In this area, forecast soundings depict instability around 2000-3000 J/kg in the vicinity of deep layer shear around 35 to 40 knots. Further east, the instability and shear profiles become less impressive. SPC highlights an Enhanced Severe Weather Outlook (3/5) just to the west of the area across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, the Slight risk (2/5) extends eastward to the Highway 65 corridor in our area. It should be noted, there is a hatched area (10% or greater probability of significant severe weather) that includes our two western rows of counties. This would include the Fort Scott down to Pittsburg, KS area over to the Nevada down to Anderson areas. All severe hazards remain plausible with this setup, though damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. As activity shifts further east through Monday night into early Tuesday morning, expect intensity to decrease as the environment becomes less favorable. By Tuesday morning, overnight activity will be ongoing. A secondary low pressure system and associated warm front lift north back through the area on Tuesday. There is remaining uncertainty on the potential for destabilization into Tuesday afternoon/evening across the eastern portions of the area, though the environment would support the threat for additional strong to severe thunderstorms. Tuesday's risk remains rather conditional at this time, and will need to be evaluated further in future forecast updates. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances persist into Wednesday, though the remains uncertainty on the exact timing and location of mesoscale features. The potential for localized heavy rainfall will need to be monitored closely through mid-week. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected with 1 to 3 inches forecast across the area, though localized flooding may occur. Thursday-Friday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to diverge a bit. Nonetheless, current guidances suggests a cold front slides through the area with additional low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) along the passage. Highs cool off into the upper 60s to lower 70s into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A few showers and storms will remain possible across portions of south central Missouri early this evening. This activity will continue to slowly move east and dissipate this evening. A surface boundary is moving through the region and will result in northerly winds through the TAF period. An upper level trough will move through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and some embedded thunderstorms to the area at times from the morning hours into the afternoon hours. Ceiling and visibilities will lower with the showers and storms with IFR conditions possible Sunday morning and afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Wise HYDROLOGY...Hatch