Expires:201009280100;;502899
FZHW50 PHFO 271908
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST MON SEP 27 2010
HIZ005>011-280100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST MON SEP 27 2010
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 14 FEET TODAY...THEN
RISE TO 14 TO 18 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY...THEN RISE
TO 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SETS TODAY...THEN RISE TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY...THEN RISE
TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY OCT 3:
THE NEW NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND SWING AROUND
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW WEST NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST FACING SHORES
WITH EXPOSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM
REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI SEP 24 2010
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4 DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 5 NNW 13 8 10 DOWN 8-12 ENE SAME
09/24 3 SW 16 4 6 SAME
SAT 4 NNW 11 6 8 DOWN MED 11-16 ENE UP
09/25 4 ENE 6 1 2 UP LOW
2 SW 15 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 8 NNW 15 14 18 UP HIGH 7-10 E DOWN
09/26 3 ENE 6 1 2 DOWN LOW
2 SSW 14 2 4 SAME LOW
MON 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN MED 4-6 VRB DOWN
09/27 3 NNW 17 4 6 UP LOW
2 SW 13 2 4 SAME LOW
TUE 9 NNW 14 16 22 SAME MED 7-10 E UP
09/28 3 SSW 16 4 6 UP LOW
WED 4 WNW 20 8 12 UP LOW 7-10 E DOWN
09/29 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN LOW
3 SSW 14 4 6 DOWN LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
STEADY SURF FROM AROUND THE COMPASS AS COMMON FOR EARLY FALL.
DETAILED...
MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 325-345
DEGREES. IT WAS GENERATED BY GALES NEAR THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS EPISODE IS PREDICTED TO
DROP TO SMALL LEVELS ON SATURDAY FROM 330-350 DEGREES.
THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHS OFF AND ON EVERY
FEW DAYS ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF HAWAII...CYCLING THE TRADES FROM
LIGHT TO MARGINALLY MODERATE AND MAKING FOR BACK TO BACK NNW
EPISODES.
THE FIRST SYSTEM DEEPENED RAPIDLY NEAR 45N...170W ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE CENTER TRACKING EAST WHILE A FRONT PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STORM-FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER AIMED AT TARGETS EAST OF
HAWAII. A BROAD AREA OF GALES WERE POINTED AT HAWAII AND MOVED TO
WITHIN 1200 NM BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE JASON SATELLITE ESTIMATED SEAS
NEAR 20 FEET AT THE HEAD OF THE FETCH UPSTREAM OF HAWAII TO THE NNW.
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE HAWAII SWELL WINDOW LATE
FRIDAY.
LOW...LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 325-340 DEGREES...WITH HEIGHTS STAYING SMALL BEFORE
SUNDOWN. SURF SHOULD PICK UP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TO HIGH LEVELS BY
SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF 330-360 DEGREES...WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT DUE TO ANGULAR SPREADING FROM SWELL TRAINS IN THE HIGH
SWATH MISSING HAWAII TO THE EAST. SURF SHOULD PEAK LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DROP TO MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS ON
MONDAY. A NEW EPISODE IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE DATELINE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM DEEPENING...BROADENING...AND
TRACKING ESE ON SATURDAY AS THE JET STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG
ABOUT 165W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SIMILAR STRENGTH TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...THOUGH ABOUT 5 DEGREES FURTHER WEST...PUTTING HAWAII
CLOSER TO THE MAXIMUM SWATH OF SWELL. ALSO...THE GALES ARE MODELLED
TO GET CLOSER TO HAWAII BY ABOUT 300 NM BY MID SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN A BIGGER EPISODE LOCALLY...BUILDING MONDAY NEAR SUNDOWN. THE
EPISODE SHOULD PEAK NEAR DAWN TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES...AND
SLOWLY DROP TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.
IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC...TYPHOON MALAKAS HAS CHANGED TRACK
TOWARD THE NNE AS IT PASSES SE OF TOKYO FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
SYSTEM STILL HAD A CLEAR EYE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. MODELS SHOW IT
HUGGING THE PERIMETER OF THE BASIN AS IT TRAVELS TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...THEN CHANGES COURSE TO THE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE TYPHOON PHASE IS COULD FILL IN TUESDAY
NIGHT LOCALLY OUT OF 280-300 DEGREES. THIS IS A DIRECTIONAL BAND
FOR OAHU THAT RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT SHADOWING BY NIIHAU AND KAUAI.
STORM- TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE MODELLED TO CONTINUE AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DURATION- AND FETCH
LENGTH-LIMITED SITUATION DUE TO THE FAST TRACK. SURF SHOULD SLOWLY
BUILD ON WEDNESDAY FROM THIS SOURCE TO MODERATE LEVELS OUT OF
300-315 DEGREES. MORE DISCUSSION IS GIVEN IN THE LONG RANGE.
MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS MINIMAL SURF FROM
WINDSWELL...THOUGH NORTHERLY EXPOSURES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE
REFRACTION NNW SWELL. A SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN LOCAL TRADES IS
MODELLED FOR SATURDAY...FALLING OFF TO GENTLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MONDAY. WINDSWELL IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT A
MINIMUM.
MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 200-220
DEGREES AT 15-17 SECOND INTERVALS. IT WAS GENERATED BY STORM-FORCE
WINDS IN THE TASMAN SEA. HEIGHTS SHOULD FAVOR THE SMALL TO MODERATE
BRACKET ON SATURDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION.
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE JET STREAM HAS HAD A LONG-LIVED TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF NEW ZEALAND...WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES IN THE TASMAN SEA AND SE OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.
SWELL ENERGY WAS GENERATED SE OF NEW ZEALAND LAST WEEKEND...AND
SHOULD ADD SURF LOCALLY FROM 185-200 DEGREES...ALONG WITH THE
200-220 DEGREE SWATH...STARTING SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED SE OF NEW ZEALAND THIS PAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE DOMINANT WAVE DIRECTION FOR THE LOCAL
SURF FROM 185-200 DEGREES BUILDING TUESDAY. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD
WITHIN THE MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH BRACKET.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF SPANNING
185-220 DEGREES...BUT HIGHEST FROM 190-195 DEGREES...SHOULD HOLD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCEMENT BY NEXT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REINFORCEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SE OF NEW ZEALAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEPTEMBER 23-24. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE OF THE
SERIES...WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING THE WORK
WEEK OF OCTOBER 4.
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE NNW TO N EPISODE SHOULD DROP TO
MODERATE LEVELS NEXT THURSDAY...AS WNW TO NW SURF FROM THE GENDER
BENDER BUILDS TO MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS. THE REMNANT
TYPHOON LOW PRESSURE IS MODELLED TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN AN AMPLIFYING
JET TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY...DROPPING THE
LOCAL TRADES FOR THURSDAY...AND BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH NNW SURF
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...SEPTEMBER 27.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS BURKE
NCDDC CALDWELL