Expires:No;;090116
FZHW50 PHFO 240045
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST SUN MAY 23 2010
HIZ005>011-24050-
OAHU-
300 PM HST SUN MAY 23 2010
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
MONDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 29:
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE AND ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM
REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI MAY 21 2010
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4
DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 8 ENE 8 4 6 UP 17-21 ENE SAME
05/21 2 SSE 17 3 5 UP
SAT 9 ENE 8 5 7 SAME MED 17-21 ENE SAME
05/22 2 SSE 17 3 5 SAME LOW
SUN 9 ENE 8 5 7 UP MED 17-21 ENE SAME
05/23 2 SSE 15 3 5 DOWN LOW
MON 9 ENE 9 6 8 SAME LOW 17-21 ENE SAME
05/24 2 SSE 13 2 4 DOWN LOW
TUE 8 E 9 6 8 DOWN LOW 17-21 E SAME
05/25
WED 7 E 8 4 6 DOWN LOW 11-16 E DOWN
05/26
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
WINDWARD SHORES TO TOP THE HEIGHTS.
DETAILED...
MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS TINY BREAKERS. THERE IS LOW...
SHORT-PERIOD ENERGY FROM 345-030 DEGREES THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME ON SATURDAY AND FADE OUT SUNDAY. OTHERWISE NO SOURCES OF SURF
FROM WNW TO NNE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS ROUGH...MODERATE BREAKERS UNDER
FRESH TRADES...BOTH FROM 60-90 DEGREES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW TREND UP INTO SUNDAY.
A BROAD...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
BETWEEN HAWAII AND CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST THE PATTERN TO REMAIN
STEADY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED FRESH BREEZES...BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS LOCAL TRADES
DOWN TO THE MODERATE LEVEL. THE LONG UPSTREAM FETCH IS ALLOWING THE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD TO SLOWLY GROW...WITH WAVE MODELS PREDICTING IT
TO REACH 9 SECONDS BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN SHOULD GIVE A
MAXIMUM TO THE BREAKERS FROM WINDSWELL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.
MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS LOW...LONG-PERIOD ENERGY OF 15-17
SECONDS FROM 155-175 DEGREES...MAKING FOR SMALL BREAKERS...WITH
INFREQUENT MODERATE SETS AT SELECT LOCATIONS. EASTERLY WINDSWELL IS
ADDING ROUGH...SHORT-PERIOD ENERGY TO SELECT BREAKER ZONES. MORE OF
THE SAME IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF STORM-FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BETWEEN 120 TO 160W
SOUTH OF FRENCH POLYNESIA LAST WEEK HAS SENT HIGH SWELL TOWARD THE
AMERICAS...WITH ANGULAR SPREADING GIVING SURF IN HAWAII. THE LAST OF
THE REINFORCEMENTS IS DUE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE EPISODE SLOWLY
FADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACKGROUND CONDITIONS OF TINY TO SMALL
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...SOUTHERN SHORES SHOULD STAY BELOW AVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND JUNE 1...WHEN A SMALL TO MODERATE EPISODE IS POSSIBLE
FROM 170-185 DEGREES.
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COMPACT AREA OF
GALES WEST OF THE DATELINE AT 40N ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAT
COULD GIVE A SMALL TO MODERATE EPISODE LOCALLY FROM 305-320 DEGREES
AROUND NEXT SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE
STATE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE WINDSWELL BY NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER LOCALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...MAY 24.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$