Expires:202307122345;Remove:202307122345;003387 FPUS74 KEPZ 121843 NOWEPZ Short Term Forecast National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1243 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-122345- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Alamogordo, Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, White Sands Range Headquarters, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, Sacramento, Crow Flats, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs 1243 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 .NOW... ***GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOUNTAIN-FOCUSED COVERAGE*** Dome of high pressure centered over south-central New Mexico will suppress convective activity this afternoon with the 12Z sounding at KEPZ confirming subsident flow within the 300-500mb layer and a warm nose aloft eating away at potential instability. Steering flow is almost non-existent today, which means any storms that do form will be nearly stationary. Downdraft CAPE around 1000 J/kg will allow the generation of outflows. Latest mesoanalysis suggests better moisture exists closer to the Arizona-New Mexico state line up to 1.4". Thunderstorm activity will be focused over the high terrain this evening, in particular the Sacramento Mountains, Black Range, and Gila National Forest. Thunderstorm coverage across the lowlands (I- 25/I-10 corridors) looks to be very spotty, generally 5-10%. Primary storm mode will be airmass "up-and-down" thunderstorms this evening with a slight risk of isolated flooding. These storms are expected to be short-lived and sub-severe. Gusty and erratic outflow winds can be expected around stronger storms, with gusts up to 50 mph. Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around sunset, with a few lingering light rain showers to midnight. $$ Dennhardt