2024/11/18 22:30
00004995AN 703 AXNT20 KNHC 182230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Di cu ion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Di cu ion for North America Central America Gulf of Mexico Caribbean Sea northern  ection  of South America and Atlantic Ocean to the African coa t from the Equator to 31N. The following information i  ba ed on  atellite imagery weather ob ervation  radar and meteorological analy i . Ba ed on 1800 UTC  urface analy i  and  atellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The mon oon trough enter  the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N16W. The ITCZ extend  from 10N16W to 07N32W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection i  noted from 03N to 11N between 15W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pre ure centered near 30N78W and it  a ociated ridge dominate  the ba in with moderate to fre h E to SE return flow. Sea  are 6 to 9 ft acro  the e wind . Sea  are 3 to 5 ft acro  the remainder of the ba in. The remnant  of Sara are producing i olated  hower  and thunder torm  over the Bay of Campeche. For the foreca t the aforementioned high pre ure  y tem centered over the E United State  dominate  the ba in with moderate to fre h E to SE return flow except fre h to  trong from the Yucatan Channel and Penin ula to the Texa  coa t which will per i t through tonight. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight reaching from S-central Loui iana to near Tamaulipa  Mexico early Tue then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fre h to  trong northerly wind  and large  ea  are foreca t acro  the ba in Wed night a  the front pu he  SE of the ba in behind the front  tarting Wed. The front will pu h SE of the ba in by early Thu with condition  gradually improving through the end of the week a  high pre ure build  in. Meanwhile convection a ociated with the remnant  of Sara currently over the Yucatan Penin ula will move into the Bay of Campeche today eventually merging with the cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A  tationary front extend  from  outh of the Leeward I land  to 16N64W with a trough from that point to 14N70W. Scattered  hower  and i olated thunder torm  are along the  tationary front and trough. Moderate to fre h E to SE wind  are in the Lee of Cuba to the Gulf of Hondura  within the NW Caribbean. Gentle to locally fre h wind  are noted in the Windward Pa age lee of Jamaica and  outh of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Mainly gentle to moderate wind  prevail el ewhere except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Sea  are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean 4 to 6 ft el ewhere where the locally fre h wind plume  are and 3 ft or le  acro  the remainder of the ba in except 6 to 8 ft near Atlantic Pa age . For the foreca t the remnant  of Sara and a ociated convection currently over the Bay of Campeche will continue to  hift away from the NW Caribbean through tonight while di ipating. Fre h to  trong wind  will pul e in the Lee of Cuba Windward Pa age and  outh of the Dominican Republic through tonight. Fre h to  trong wind  in the NW Caribbean will dimini h by Tue a  the next cold front move  toward the area from the NW. The front i  foreca t to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night reaching from central Cuba to near NE Nicaragua early Fri with increa ing wind  and building  ea  behind it. Meanwhile  ea  of around 8 ft in northerly  well in the Atlantic pa age  will  ub ide today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a high pre ure over the we tern Atlantic i  building acro  the we tern  ubtropical Atlantic water  in the wake of a  tationary front that extend  from 31N50W  outhwe t to the Leeward I land . A pre-frontal trough i  producing  cattered moderate convection within 250 nm ahead of the front. Sea  range 8 to 11 ft in NW to N  well. The reinforcing trough i  bringing reinforcing  well a  well a  fre h to  trong wind . Fre h to  trong S-SW wind  are al o N of 28.5N in the area of convection. To the ea t a 1008 mb low i  near 30N24W with a related trough extending NE of the low. Moderate wind  and 8 to 11 ft  ea  are near the low. Broad ridging with gentle to moderate wind  and 5 to 7 ft  ea  prevail acro  the remainder of the water . For the foreca t we t of 55W the  tationary front will have active convection per i ting within 200 nm ahead of the front through tonight. Large  ea  are following the front and will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough will clip the NE water  on Tue with increa ing wind  and building  ea . The next cold front may move off the SE United State  late Wed night with another round of increa ing wind  and building  ea . Thi  front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahama  by early Fri. $$ AReinhart 00001051BI 704 IUOA01 EGRR 182224 BUFR