Expires:No;;976365 FPUS54 KHUN 041749 ZFPHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1132 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013 .UPDATE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN FRINGES OF UPPER RIDGING BUT BREAKS IN THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER WRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013/ TRANSITIONAL WX PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MON MORNING...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. SFC HIGH DRAPED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE NRN GULF IS STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY EWD TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN...THEREBY HELPING TO USHER SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING MORE INTO THE SEASONAL UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WX SLATED FOR TUE. AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST REGION ON TUE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE MID/SRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AREAS LATE MON. SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT TRACK CLOSER TO THE GENERAL AREA...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE SLY JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN NUM SHOWERS TUE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ABUNDANT SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD OFFSET THE THREAT FOR MORE ROBUST/STRONGER CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEADING INTO TUE NIGHT...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TRAILING MOISTURE OVER SRN/MID TN TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE WX CONDITIONS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL TREND IS XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSLATES EWD. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE RAIN/SHOWERS ON SUN AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. 09 && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING MVFR 1500-2500 FT DECKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/CDFNT APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. 03 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.