Expires:No;;077503
FPUS55 KGJT 212210
ZFPGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2010
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MUCH TAUTED PACIFIC MOISTURE POURING INTO UT/CO STILL READILY
APPARENT AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES AMPLE MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO UT AND CO. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SLOW-
MOVING ELONGATED TROF TO OUR NW...HAS KEPT PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THRU TROF. STRONG JET OVR NRN CANADA HAS STARTED
DROPPING SWRD AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE ABOVE-MENTIONED TROF
SWRD.  AS THIS OCCURS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL MOVE SWRD FOCUSING PRECIP OVR CENT MTNS...AND THEN SAN JUANS.
NAM12/GFS40 HAVE FORECASTED THIS TREND OVR LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS SOLN. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
ECHOES OVR MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED FOR MANY
AREAS...CONTINUED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT
FOR LATEST INFO.
BY MON AFTN...REMNANTS OF PESKY TROF/LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF
CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN THRU TUE.  EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY KEEPING DAY AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN UT AND CO VALLEYS AS
TEMPS DROP AND REMAINING MOISTURE FROM STORM LENDS ITSELF TO
FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHRT WV RIDGE MOVES FROM WRN UT EWRD INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT FLATTENS AS PACIFIC STORM ENERGY ENTERS THE GRT BASIN. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED ALTHO SOME MSTR PENETRATES THE RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY A FLAT
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION...BUT SHRT WV
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER
HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER ERN UT. MSTR AND FORCING INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED PCPN BREAKS OUT OVER MOST MTNS BY EARLY THUR
MORNING.
MODELS START TO SHOW DIFFERENCES AS EARLY AS THUR WITH EC FAVORING
A FASTER SOLUTION TAKING SHRT WV INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE
THE GFS HOLDS SHRT WV TO OUR WEST PROMISING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. FOLLOWED THE LATER GFS SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS MORE
CONSISTENT WHICH SHOWS TROF PASSAGE THUR NITE. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS
THEN COME BACK TOGETHER FRIDAY AS DIRTY MOISTURE LADEN RIDGE BUILDS
TEMPORARILY OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GRT
BASIN PUSHING THE RIDGE EWRD. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO REDEVELOP FROM
THE WEST. THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH APPEARS
TO MOVE THROUGH NRN AZ AND NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KVEL...WILL BE FLUCTUATING FROM VFR TO IFR
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVR REGION.
EXPECT TAF SITES TO SEE LOW VIS/CIGS FOR A FEW HRS DUE TO
SNOWSHOWERS...THEN MVFR/VFR AS DISTURBANCE MOVES E...WITH A RETURN TO
IFR AS NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  KVEL SHOULD REMAIN VFR TO MVFR DUE TO
CIGS DROPPING FROM TIME TO TIME.  FOG MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR LATER ON
THIS EVENING THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR ZONES 002-003-
       007>014-017>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR ZONE 004.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR ZONES 022-025-
       027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM....NL/MC
AVIATION.....TGR