Expires:No;;394486
AXNT20 KNHC 081702
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to
00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N
between 12W and 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb low pressure is centered right off Galveston, TX. A cold
front extends south of the low to northern Mexico. A warm front
extends east of the low across the Louisiana coast. Scattered
showers are noted near the frontal system. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the basin with seas ranging 2 to 5 ft,
highest off the southeast Texas coast.

For the forecast, the low will meander through tonight, then 
gradually dissipate Mon. A cold front will move offshore Texas 
Tue, move quickly SE through the basin, and exit the region by 
late Wed. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly
building seas can be expected. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered north of the region. This feature,
combined with low pressure over Colombia, is supporting fresh to
strong winds across the central and northwestern Caribbean,
particularly north of Colombia and the Windward Passage. Seas are
6 to 8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean, a trough is analyzed along 
65W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in this region with 4 to 6
ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa
Rica. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds north of Colombia and
in the Windward Passage will prevail into Mon night, then the 
high pressure will shift eastward into the central Caribbean, and 
winds will diminish to moderate to fresh, except off the coast of 
Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead,
a cold front may move through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into 
the NW Caribbean Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, surface ridging extends off the Florida 
coast anchored by a 1027 mb high located over Jacksonville, FL.
Benign conditions prevail under the influence of this high, with
light to gentle winds and seas 5 ft, with 6 ft seas extending
near the Turks and Caicos and north of Hispaniola.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N53W to
23N68W. A trough extends east of the front from 31N48W to 25N55W.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm of the trough.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind the front with moderate S
winds ahead of the front, north of 27N. Seas in this area range 6
to 8 ft, with the 8 ft seas N of 28N and E of 50W. Light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail from 20N to 27N. South of 
27N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are noted. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 31N36W to
20N41W. Scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh winds around
the northern portion of the low. Seas also range 8 to 10 ft N of
29N between 32N and 38W. Off the coast of Africa, winds are
moderate to fresh with seas 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will dissipate into 
tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off 
northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to reach from 31N78W to Fort Pierce, Florida, by Wed afternoon, 
and from 31N72W to western Cuba Wed night. Strong winds and rough 
seas will rapidly build southward behind the front through the end
of the week. 

$$
AReinhart