Expires:No;;884228 AXNT20 KNHC 110614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Francine is moving toward the coast of Louisiana. Life- threatening storm surge, and hurricane-force winds, are expected to being in Louisiana later today on Wednesday. The hazards that will be affecting land are: wind, rainfall, storm surge, tornadoes, and surf. The center of Hurricane Francine, at 11/0600 UTC, is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, near 26.6N 94.1W. This position is also about 240 nm/315 km to the ENE of the mouth of the Rio Grande; and about 373 nm/445 km, to the SW of Morgan City in Louisiana. Francine is moving toward the NE, or 035 degrees 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Hurricane-force winds are within: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within: 70 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 24 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong is elsewhere 24N to 29N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N northward between 90W and 92W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal plains/in the coastal waters of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. Atlantic Ocean INVEST Area (AL93): A tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 18N southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near along the tropical wave near 15NW. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 14.5N to 16N between 25W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 13N and the monsoon trough to 17N between 23W and 27W. The environmental conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system. It is likely that a tropical depression will form during the latter part of this week. The weather system is forecast to move west-northwestward 10 mph to 15 mph. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at hurricanes.gov, for details. METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Winds: The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds, until 12/0000 UTC, for the marine zone AGADIR. Mostly strong to near gale-force, with some fresh, NE winds are from 23N northward from 23W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 23N to 26N from 20W eastward; and from 20N to 24N between 20W and 25W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Please, refer to the website: wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The information about the INVEST AREA (AL93) tropical wave is in the Special Features section. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. An upper level trough is along 28N63W in the Atlantic Ocean-21N64W in the Atlantic Ocean- 15N67W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is from 09N in Venezuela to 31N between 58W and 68W, in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and in parts of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is between 73W and 84W. Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to the INVEST AL93 low pressure center, to 11N35W, to the INVEST AL92 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 15N42W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 15N52W, to 14N57W. Moderate to rough seas are within 135 nm of the center of the AL92 low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Strong winds are within 160 nm of the AL92 center in the N quadrant. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 15N to 17N between 44W and 46W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 06N to 18N from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Francine, that is in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A weak stationary front has been from 28N to 29N between 80W and 90W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the stationary front northward from 86W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, to locally strong, is from 24N northward from 90W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W eastward. Hurricane Francine is near 26.4N 94.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Francine will move to 27.7N 93.2W Wed morning, inland to 29.7N 91.4W Wed evening, move farther inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.0N 90.2W Thu morning, and continue away from the Gulf and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.2N 89.9W Thu evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf during the weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for the details about the precipitation that is related to each tropical wave. Fresh NE winds are from 14N southward between 67W and 76W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are everywhere. The monsoon trough is along 12N67W 11N73W, beyond 08N78W in Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean. A tropical wave extending from just south of central Cuba to Panama will move across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Another tropical wave entering the E Caribbean will move across the basin through the next few days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras while moderate to fresh winds pulse in the south- central Caribbean through Fri night, with moderate to fresh winds in the SE Caribbean this weekend. Mainly gentle moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the INVEST low pressure center, AL93, that is associated with the 23W/24W tropical wave. Please, read the Monsoon Trough/the ITCZ section, for details about the INVEST low pressure center, AL92, that is near 15N42W. A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb 32N70W low pressure center, to 31N70W, beyond 29N81W at the Florida east coast, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 64W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 11/0000 UTC, are: 0.65 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. One surface trough curves away from a 1014 mb 31N52W low pressure center, to 29N51W and 25N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 50W and 56W. A second surface trough curves away from 34N46W 1017 mb low pressure center, through 31N45W to 25N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 30N northward between 42W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N to 30N between 44W and 50W. Moderate to rough seas are from 23N to 26N from 20W eastward; and from 20N to 24N between 20W and 25W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Some exceptions are for small areas of slight seas from 60W westward. Fresh NE winds are from 13N northward between 23W and 36W, and elsewhere from 14N to 26N between 36W and 46W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the waters that are from the monsoon trough northward. Strong southerly winds are from 03N southward between 37W and 40W. Fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward between 20W and 32W; and elsewhere from 03N southward between 33W and 42W. Fresh easterly winds are from 02N southward between 45W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from the monsoon trough southward. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh northeast to east winds are north of the front along with seas to around 8 ft. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of 65W. The front may make some southward progress as a weak cold front Wed before stalling again Thu and eventually lifting back north as a warm front Thu night and Fri. The front may drop south to around 31N again this weekend. Elsewhere over the remainder Southwest North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate with slight to moderate seas. $$ mt/jl