Expires:No;;940764
ASUS43 KMPX 141410
RWRMN 
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIOALSO INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY EVEN
THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUCH A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. WAITING FOR 12Z RUN TO SHED LIGHT ON POSITION OF ANY
DYNAMIC COUPLING. SPC STILL HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA TODAY SPREADING TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE REGION ON
DAY 2.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NW SD TODAY. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BISECT ND...AND WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCAL POINT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN ND THIS EVENING...WITH
HELP THE A LLJ. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WHERE STORMS HAVE
REACHED SEVERE LIMITS. BELIEVE THAT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A
WEAKENING IN THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
MAY PROVE OTHERWISE. AFTER 0Z TONIGHT...THE 4KM WRF FROM NSSL
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
20 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 KNOTS. THE
BEST CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES HOWEVER ARE NOT COLLOCATED. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...SOME MAY BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...AND MAY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN
15-21Z...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER 21Z...MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 2000 J/KG HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE AOA 35 KNOTS. THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS BEHINDS
THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ADDED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...BELIEVE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST DAY 2
OUTLOOK FROM HPC SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVING AT LEAST A HALF
INCH OF RAIN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NE CWA. WILL LEAVE OUT
THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF OVERALL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. THE WEEKEND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND BY
TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MODELS
DIFFER IN LOCATION AND TIMING...THEREFORE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS
KEPT MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND LOW
POPS ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND THE CO/WY/SD
BORDERS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE KPIR AND KMBG TAF SITES
THIS MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z. VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND ALL
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORMS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...KRAMLICH
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN